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Two new polls published in France list the leader of the far-right National Rally (RN) party, Marine Le Pen, as the favorite candidate to win the 2027 presidential election, despite her conviction for misusing European Union funds.
The polls, conducted by the Ifop institute for LCI and Le Figaro, as well as by Toluna Harris Interactive for M6 and RTL, show that Le Pen would lead the first round of the election and would also win the run-off scheduled for May 2, 2027.
However, the institutions conducting the polls emphasize that the results only reflect the current attitude of the electorate and do not constitute a prediction of the final outcome. By the first round of the elections, on April 18, 2027, the political landscape could change significantly.
Le Pen extends lead
According to the Ifop poll, Marine Le Pen would receive 36% of the vote in the first round, up from the 32–34% she had recorded in previous months' polls. None of her rivals managed to get above 19%.
The Toluna Harris Interactive poll also presents a similar picture, ranking Le Pen in first place with a significant margin over the other candidates.
The polls were released after the Court of Appeal upheld Le Pen's conviction for misusing European Union funds, but also reduced her ban on running in elections. Following the ruling, the 57-year-old leader of the National Rally confirmed that she would run in the 2027 presidential election.
Who can challenge him?
According to both polls, Marine Le Pen would win the second round of the election, regardless of the identity of her opponent. The most competitive result against her is recorded by former Prime Minister Édouard Philippe, who is considered the strongest rival in a possible run-off. Meanwhile, Le Pen would have an even greater lead if she faced former Prime Minister Gabriel Attal or left-wing leader Jean-Luc Mélenchon.
If this trend is confirmed in the polls of the coming months, Marine Le Pen would enter the 2027 presidential race as the leading candidate to succeed Emmanuel Macron in leading France.
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