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Rajoni dhe Bota2023-11-21 19:50:00

Three reasons why any cease-fire to free Gaza hostages will be fragile

Shkruar nga Pamfleti

Three reasons why any cease-fire to free Gaza hostages will be fragile

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu began a series of meetings with Israel's war cabinet, security cabinet and parliament this evening to discuss the latest developments, which are seen as an important step in the process of securing Israel's agreement to the terms of any proposal for release of hostages.

If some of the hostages are released, any deal is likely to include not only the specifics of an exchange, but also how long any ceasefire will be observed and whether aid can also flow to address the growing humanitarian crisis in Gaza.

Any deal to free at least some of the hostages will be widely welcomed, but it is also fraught with difficulties.

But this agreement is still considered fragile for three strong reasons:

-Any pause in the fighting must be respected for the agreement to work

First, some form of temporary cessation of hostilities will be required to enable the process and logistics of releasing the hostages. 

This will need to be agreed in advance, communicated to all parties and then adhered to.  

Any agreement would also have to consider how to handle any "accidental" incidents that risk undermining a fragile ceasefire.

-Hamas' secrecy will slow things down

Second, the role of mediators is crucial to the release of hostages, and although the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) is not involved in negotiations, they help facilitate the release of hostages and were directly involved in the release of four hostages previously.

However, Hamas will be very careful not to compromise the locations where they are holding the remaining hostages, so there will be a high degree of secrecy and security associated with the Red Cross and Hamas intermediaries, and this will take time.

Hamas will also want to "feed" the hostage release in order to gain confidence in the process, and maximize the duration of any ceasefire or operational pause.

- There is a lack of confidence that not all hostages will be released

Finally, there is clearly a significant risk that any temporary cessation of hostilities will be too fragile and too dependent on trust, which is lacking in this conflict. 

Each side has blamed the other for the atrocities committed to date, and there is a grave risk that any compromise of the security agreement could endanger ICRC personnel as well as the hostages themselves.

But there are hopes that a number of hostages will be released and reunited with their families very soon. 

However, most of the hostages are likely to remain in captivity. /Sky News

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