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Putin wants 20% of Ukraine, Zelensky eyes European leaders and Trump
The peace equation for Ukraine has two key factors: territories and security guarantees.
International talks are focused on reaching an agreement between these two points, also considering the need for a ceasefire: Kiev must accept a territorial concession in exchange for guaranteed security for the country in the future. However, the solution is complicated, as the territorial issue has limited variables and security guarantees are a complex challenge due to Ukrainian distrust of Western promises.
Moscow's demands
Russian President Vladimir Putin has set out his demands that favor Russia: he wants all of the Donbass territories, including the part of Donetsk that is not yet under his control, the Kherson and Zaporizhia regions, and recognition of sovereignty over Crimea. In practice, this means about 20% of Ukraine's territory. In return, Russia offers only small parts of Sumy and Kharkiv, and a "symbolic" removal of control over some areas of Kherson and Zaporizhia.
International mechanism
Only in this area does there seem to be room for negotiation: the discussion of security guarantees. The White House has stated that the US will be part of the mechanism, a potentially significant step, reversing Trump's approach last spring when he left the responsibility largely to the Europeans.
Monitoring the ceasefire
One of the main issues is the deployment of monitoring troops on the ground. The Kremlin has suggested involving China, making it possible to create an “international intervention force,” similar to UN missions, without heavy weapons. France, Germany, and Britain are ready to participate, while countries such as India, the Emirates, and Brazil could also be involved. Ukraine has expressed mistrust, recalling the failures of OSCE missions in Donbas in 2014.
Real protection task force
Ukraine wants a strong defense to keep out the Russian threat, with troops ready and able to intervene. Zelensky has asked for concrete guarantees “on land, in the air and at sea.” The reference model is NATO’s “crystal bowl” during the Cold War, which served to slow down an aggression and enable the mobilization of reserves.
Treaties and historical mistrust
Ukraine cannot join NATO, but a treaty similar to the Alliance's Article 5, which guarantees international intervention in the event of aggression, is being considered. The proposal has the support of Italy and the European Union, but Kiev has reservations because of the experience of the 1993 Budapest Memorandum, when Russia and the United States promised security in exchange for the disposal of nuclear weapons.
Zelensky has made EU integration a condition for negotiations, which would strengthen Ukraine's economic and military capabilities. Brussels could support the production of strategic equipment and the strengthening of the army, especially drones. Ukraine aims to maintain its defense capabilities and strategic independence.
*"Crystal cauldron" – A term with a political-military meaning, to describe an improvised defensive structure, to protect against attacks, but not an absolute barrier.
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