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The American system is built to favor competition between just 2 parties. Of course, discontent is growing, and many Americans no longer feel represented by Democrats and Republicans. But those who want a third party aspire to something that resembles them. And Musk does not represent...
Last year, Elon Musk helped Donald Trump expand the MAGA support base. From that moment on, it was no longer just a movement of nostalgic white elders rejecting the cultural changes promoted by Democrats. It began to represent a new political vision, designed for the future.
So much so that during his inauguration speech, Trump once again promoted the beloved utopia of "his friend", the conquest and colonization of the planet Mars. An interplanetary and inclusive American dream, which began to gain more and more support among young people and Latin Americans, laying the foundations of a multiethnic and aspirational populism.
The recent split shows that Trump is incapable of embodying these ambitions in a sustainable way. Yascha Mounk, a political scientist at Johns Hopkins University in the US, an expert on populism and political identity, explains why Musk will not succeed if he creates his own party in an attempt to break the centuries-old two-party system.
On Friday, Musk tried unsuccessfully to reach Trump by phone. Is it still possible for the two to reconcile?
Donald Trump has the mentality of a mafia godfather, and in his view Elon Musk has been disloyal to him. Under these conditions, a reconciliation would have to go through a public apology and some form of humiliation. Something that seems impossible to me, considering that Elon's ego is as big as Donald's.
So, will Musk create a political party, as he has threatened?
He has the money to do so, and to support an election campaign. But given his lack of popularity, that seems an unlikely prospect to me. Not least because the American electoral system is built to favor the two existing major parties.
To date, a third party has managed to take only 2 Electoral College votes from the two major parties. Of course, discontent is growing, and many Americans no longer feel represented by the Democrats and Republicans. But those who want a third party aspire to something that resembles them. And Elon Musk is not such a figure.
If he decided to run, which of the 2 major parties would he get the most votes for?
Today he is considered right-wing, having been a close ally of Trump until yesterday. But if he continues to criticize the president, he could attract voters who dislike Democrats but who at the same time hate Trump.
Who will Silicon Valley's bigwigs align with in this clash?
There are those who believe that this division is a symbol of the impossibility of a broader alliance with the MAGA movement. For this, it is enough to recall the opposing positions on universities: while Silicon Valley is eager for talents found anywhere in the world, Trump is making it difficult for them to come to the United States. But there are also others who think that Elon Musk has a complex personality, is unreliable and uses drugs.
Vice President JD Vance has many connections to figures close to Musk.. .
Yes, as with entrepreneur Peter Thiel, who founded PayPal with Elon. But Vance has never been a specific ally of Elon Musk. And above all, he knows how to do the math well, and is a careerist capable of quickly changing alliances. Between proletarian populism and the elitist interests of Silicon Valley, he will choose the former.
Musk claims that Trump owes his victory in last year's election to...
That's true, but not so much for the $300 million invested in the campaign. Presidential elections always bring in a lot of money. He made the difference by buying the X platform, which until then had been balanced, and which also conveyed the values of the left. Musk changed its nature, and made it less important.
Both are fiercely attacking each other from their social networks...
Musk's attacks are made through the X platform, while Trump responds through his social network Truth. Meanwhile, Democrats use the Bluesky platform more, which leans significantly to the left. It's a war waged through social media, but where each remains in their own bubble. They are separate spheres, and there is no attempt to confront each other. Something that is not positive for civic culture in the long run.
There are those who say that this whole standoff is a set-up to distract from Trump's failures in Ukraine, Gaza, and with the tariffs...
I don't believe that, because Donald Trump doesn't need such a sensational clash. He's not doing very well in the polls, but it's still not that bad.
What should we expect next?
The fight between the two will continue, with the hottest phases alternating with the coldest. This confrontation will be as interesting as it is worthless in relation to the public's interest./ Pamphlet from "La Repubblica"
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