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The Champions League is on fire. With the knockout stages set to be a nail-biting affair, Opta's supercomputer has been analysing statistical data to predict what will happen in the continent's premier competition. Some of the results are surprising.
What stands out is the podium of the potential winners of the tournament. The first is Liverpool, who, despite being eliminated from the FA Cup by the Plymouth team, are making the most of first place in the group stage, with the advantages in the plan and the draws that this brings (at least in theory).
In 23.9% of the cases simulated by the supercomputer, Arne Slot and his team are the ones predicted to take home the trophy.
However, the ranking of the favorites does not correspond to the order of the first phase in all cases. Barcelona, which finished second, is not second in the predictions of “Opta”. “The Reds”, on the other hand, are followed on the podium by Arsenal and Inter. Mikel Arteta's team would win the championship with 16.4% of the cases; Inter with 15%. Barça is the fourth favorite, with a probability of 10.1%.
Real Madrid have the advantage over City
But let's see what's urgent: the qualifying rounds for the round of 16. Real Madrid are the tightest: according to Opta simulations, Ancelotti's players have a 52% chance of progressing to the next round, compared to Manchester City's 48%.
This is the fourth consecutive season that these two teams have faced each other in the Champions League, something that has only happened in three other encounters throughout the competition's history (the others were Deportivo La Coruña - Juventus, Chelsea - Liverpool and Atletico Madrid - Real Madrid).
The direct implication of this almost-equal qualifying round draw is that neither Real Madrid nor Manchester City are in the top positions to win the Champions League title, according to the supercomputer. The white team is the sixth favorite, with a 4.4% probability; the “Citizens” are in ninth place, as they would be winners only 3.4% of the time.
However, the least even draw, according to the statistical simulation, is the one between Brest and PSG. The data shows that Luis Enrique's team has an 87% chance of beating the Britannia team and advancing to the next round.
If that were to happen, the Parisians would play either Liverpool or Barcelona in the round of 16. The French tie is closely followed in terms of disparity by the Celtic-Bayern pairing, with the Bavarians having an 82% chance of progressing.
As for the other six matches in the round of 16, the favorites are Juventus (55% chance of progressing against PSV), Sporting Lisbon (57%, against Dortmund), Atalanta (73%, against Club Brugge), Milan (67%, against Feyenoord) and Benfica (55%, against Monaco).
PSG, Leverkusen or Atalanta among the possible champions
In addition to the top four favorites for the title, the "Opta" supercomputer prediction also takes into account the chances that the rest of the teams still in the race have to take the Champions League home.
PSG have a 6% chance; Real Madrid, Bayer Leverkusen and Atalanta are around 4%; and City, Atletico Madrid and Bayern Munich are around 3%. Aston Villa and Lille, despite already securing their place in the last 16, would only win the Champions League in 1% of cases.
There are also a number of teams that the supercomputer gives no chance of winning the Champions League. Statistically, a victory for PSV, Borussia, Monaco, Feyenoord, Brugge, Celtic or Brest would be essentially impossible. However, it is now known that statistics are often there to be broken.
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