FLASH
Shkruar nga Pamfleti
A fresh poll published by the INSA institute for the German newspaper BILD has caused major waves in German politics. For the first time, the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party has taken the lead in electoral preferences, leaving behind the conservative CDU/CSU coalition, known as the Union.
This development marks a historic high for the AfD and signals a profound shift in the balance of political forces in Europe's largest country. According to the results of the survey, conducted between September 12 and 15, with 2,004 potential voters, the AfD ranks with 26% of support, an increase of one percentage point compared to the previous week. This represents the highest level ever recorded by INSA for the party led by Alice Weidel and Tino Chrupalla.
On the other hand, the Union falls to 25%, losing the top position traditionally held by the CDU/CSU or the SPD social democrats. This close tie between the two main forces highlights a tough race, with the AfD seemingly exploiting widespread dissatisfaction with the current government.
The Social Democratic Party (SPD) recorded a modest increase to 15%, showing a slight recovery after previous losses.
The poll also highlights a harsh reality for the executive: the current government, led by Chancellor Friedrich Merz of the CDU, would not have a majority in the Bundestag if elections were held today. A possible coalition between the Union and the SPD would only reach 40% of the vote, while a combination with the Greens would be even weaker, with 37%, both far from the 50% threshold needed to govern. In stark contrast, a hypothetical alliance between the Union and the AfD would secure 51% of support, with the AfD as the dominant partner. This scenario, which has been categorically rejected by Merz, highlights the internal tensions on the right and the risk of fragmentation of the political center.
The popularity of the Union's leader, Friedrich Merz, has taken a serious hit: only one in four Germans say they are satisfied with his leadership, while two-thirds of the population are openly dissatisfied. This decline is explained by criticism of economic policies and management of recent crises, as well as the early failures of the coalition after the February 2025 elections.
The results of this poll are not just numbers; they confirm a frightening trend for the AfD, which has benefited from heated debates on migration, the economy and security, as well as from the continued decline of the Greens, who have lost ground due to environmental policies considered unnecessary in times of crisis.
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