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According to Bloomberg, Erdogan's defeat is attributed to the state of the economy: on the one hand, uncontrolled inflation and on the other hand, the highest borrowing costs since the current president of Turkey came to power.
Most of the international media describe as historic the defeat of the party of the president of Turkey, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, in the municipal elections on Sunday as the biggest defeat in Istanbul against Ekrem Imamoglu.
Bloomberg in its analysis describes the current mayor of Istanbul as an "enemy" for Erdogan, recalling that he was the one who in 2019 ended the 25-year control of the largest Turkish city by the Justice and Development Party (AKP). in power.
"Sunday's result will be a big boost to Ekrem Imamoglu's popularity, as the Istanbul mayor won by more than 11 points over Erdogan's pick, Murat Kurum, while polls were talking about a vote-for-vote battle in the election. of the largest Turkish city writes Bloomberg.
"This is just the beginning," Imamoglu said Sunday before a sea of red Turkish flags, with Istanbul's mayor celebrating to the sound of the Pontic lyre.
Millet evinde Saraçhane'deyiz. https://t.co/LLMQ7dd5ni
— Ekrem İmamoğlu (@ekrem_imamoglu) March 31, 2024
Wanting, in fact, to appear unifying, in the face of the vision of being Erdogan's main opponent in the 2028 elections, Imamoglu on Monday morning posted a short video on X with the message "16 million Constantinople won".
16 Million İstanbulu won. pic.twitter.com/x27grrTTig
— Ekrem İmamoğlu (@ekrem_imamoglu) April 1, 2024
According to Bloomberg, Erdogan's defeat is attributed to the state of the economy: on the one hand, uncontrolled inflation and on the other hand, the highest borrowing costs since the current president of Turkey came to power.
The results show that Turks turned their backs on the AKP in most of the country, but the defeat for Erdogan's party was more dramatic in urban areas.
"Voters seem to have punished the AKP and its candidates for the financial difficulties they are facing," said Eurasia Group's director of European affairs, Emre Peker. According to him, "Erdogan is no longer immune to voters' concerns about the economy, which he ignored in May 2023 to win his re-election."
The AKP won the mayoral seat in 24 cities, up from 39 in 2019. Overall, the CHP won 36 municipalities out of Turkey's 81 provinces, according to Anadolu, making inroads into several strongholds of Erdogan's party. It won 37% of the national vote, compared to 36% for the president's party, marking the CHP's biggest electoral victory since Erdogan took power two decades ago.
The Islamist factor
The Bloomberg analysis also attributes part of Erdogan's loss to the Islamic Welfare Party's decision to field its own candidates, thereby ending its alliance with the AKP. Candidates from the Prosperity Party, which has criticized Erdogan's economic policies as well as continued trade with Israel, garnered more than 6% of the vote.
However, according to Teneo consultancy co-chairman Wolfgang Piccoli, the election result is unlikely to bridge the gap between Erdogan and the group of key economic policymakers led by Finance Minister Mehmet Simsek. As Piccoli explains, the main risk under Simsek's political plan, which includes fiscal discipline and high interest rates to tame inflation, is that Erdogan will struggle not to raise the minimum wage and pensioners' wages in the second half of the year. 2024.
The new battle of Imamoglu
However, Imamoglu's path will not be clear as even after his second consecutive victory in Istanbul, he has to fight another battle – this time in court – as he is accused of insulting members of the Supreme Electoral Council, which could lead to the prohibition of the exercise of his political rights.
Erdogan accepted the defeat of his party
Erdogan conceded his election defeat in a speech from the balcony of the presidential palace, saying that "March 31 for us is not the end, it is a turning point."
At the same time, he tried to calm the markets, assuring that the government has so far firmly implemented the medium-term program and the 12th development plan.
"We stayed away from populism that would cost our country, our nation and future generations," he said. We will start to see the positive effects of our economic program, especially on inflation, from the second half of the year", he promised. "Everyone, from our business world to bureaucracy, from traders to farmers, marketers, workers and students, will be able to focus on what really matters to them."
"Regardless of the results, the winner of these elections is first and foremost our democracy, the national will and all 85 million people, regardless of their political views," the Turkish president said. "The winner of the election marathon was Turkey, our nation and our democracy, for which we paid a heavy price," he added.
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