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The prospect of a major regional war in the Middle East hinges on Benjamin Netanyahu's war cabinet meeting today to decide Israel's response to Iran's drone and missile attack.
Netanyahu's ministers voted in the middle of the night to delegate that decision to the small war cabinet, made up of Netanyahu, Defense Minister Yoav Gallant and Benny Gantz, a Netanyahu adversary who joined the government as minister without portfolio after the attack of Hamas on October 7, which began the spiral of violence that has brought Israel and Iran to the brink of war.
These three bitter rivals will decide the next step, with the fate of the region already in their hands.
In the nervous hours leading up to the war cabinet meeting, Netanyahu and Biden spoke by phone for 25 minutes, during which, according to some Israeli media reports, the US president asked for restraint.
Biden released a statement minutes after the call in which he did not give clear advice to Netanyahu but noted that with US help, "almost all the incoming drones and missiles" had been shot down.
That "remarkable" defense capability, Biden argued, was itself "a clear message to his enemies that they cannot effectively threaten Israel's security."
As of early Sunday morning, the only reported casualty of the airstrike was a 10-year-old girl in Israel's southern desert, from the country's most marginalized community, the Bedouin. A southern military base was lightly damaged.
In the run-up to the expected Iranian attack, US officials had hypothesized just such an outcome: that Iranian shells would land in the desert and cause no significant casualties. In that case, the officials predicted, Washington would push hard against a hasty Israeli response.
Iran is clearly hoping for such a muted response. In a message sent through its mission to the UN, Tehran suggested hopefully that in the wake of its retaliation: "The matter can be considered closed."
Both Biden and the Iranians are aware that Netanyahu would ideally like to destroy Iran's nuclear facilities, which he has long seen as an existential threat to Israel. Reducing them to rubble would be very difficult without US help, but it is possible that he and other Israeli hawks could try to seize this opportunity to fulfill that ambition.
NBC News reported Saturday night that some senior administration officials are "concerned that Israel might do something quickly in response to Iran's attacks without thinking about the possible consequences afterward."
The report said Biden had privately expressed concern that Netanyahu "is trying to drag the US deeper into a broader conflict," citing three people familiar with the president's comments.
Administration officials are aware that Netanyahu has an incentive to continue hostilities, as it prevents the collapse of his coalition and new elections.
While the damage to Israel was minimal, Israeli officials could argue that this was not thanks to Tehran, but to the reliability of Israeli air defenses and its allies, particularly the US, UK and Jordan. Jordan risked being attacked in the Arab world for intercepting some of the Iranian drones as they crossed its airspace.
This joint action, prepared in the week before the Iranian attack, almost certainly saved lives and may have averted a wider war. It may also serve as a reminder of Israel's dependence on the US to keep Israelis safe.
In the short term, Washington can be comforted by some signs that any Israeli response will at least not be immediate. Israel has called for a UN Security Council meeting on the attack, which will take place at 4pm New York time on Sunday. It would be surprising if a counterattack was launched before that session.
Another possible sign that the response could be muted was Gallant's conversation with his American counterpart, Lloyd Austin, after the attacks. According to the Israeli defense ministry, Gallant "stressed that the defense establishment is prepared for any further attempts to attack the State of Israel." His comments did not mention the return of Israel.
A third positive sign in the early hours of Sunday was an assurance from an Israeli official quoted by the New York Times that "Israel's response would be coordinated with its allies."
Washington is likely to remind Israel in the coming hours and days of its benefits in weathering Iran's fury largely unscathed.
The attack has for now drawn global attention from Israel's conduct in the Gaza war. Moreover, the Iranian attack is likely to diffuse murmurings in the US Congress about curbing arms supplies to Israel because of Gaza. Now such restrictions may be imposed by Israel's supporters, leaving America's main ally in the Middle East vulnerable to the proven Iranian threat./ From: "The Guardian" , Adapted from: "Pamphlet"
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