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Why did Tehran, which did not react or immediately after the elimination of General Soleimani by Trump's America in January 2020, choose to escalate the situation in April 2024?
Most French analysts have agreed that Iran's attack brought Israel out of international isolation, but did not hide their concerns about the final outcome of the crisis.
Iran, with its attack on Israel, not only returned America to the heart of the Middle East, but also proved the "quality" of the American Intelligence Services, as they had witnessed in February 2022, when they announced the Russian attack on Ukraine.
The US may have wanted to distance itself to focus on Asia, but, trapped between Israel and Iran on the one hand and Russia's aggressive ambitions on the other, it cannot focus on its primary goal of competing with China.
Tehran has not only placed Washington at the heart of the balance in the Middle East, but for the moment it has lifted Israel out of its diplomatic, if not strategic, isolation.
Highlighting the overwhelming technological superiority of the state of Israel, “Why did Tehran, which did not react or immediately after the elimination of General Soleimani by Trump's America in January 2020, choose to escalate the situation in April 2024?
Can we think that, like Russia in Ukraine, the Iran of the mullahs has overestimated its own forces and underestimated those of its adversary?"
According to experts, the Iranian regime, a victim of the incompetence and corruption of its leaders, saw a window of opportunity to gain support from authoritarian regimes, from Moscow to Beijing.
The beginning of an uncertain period is also mentioned in its lead article by the newspaper Le Figaro, which considers Iran's "humiliating" operational failure as secondary, certainly not to the Israelis, who, as it points out, are sure they can rely on. in an extremely effective air defense system.
However, the Iranians can claim that they tried to crush Israel's Iron Dome, and he believes that the fact that they failed does not change the strategic situation and, in this sense, the damage is done and now begins the uncertain period of retaliation.
The Jewish state may see this as an added opportunity and legitimacy to strike in turn on Iranian soil, particularly the military nuclear program facilities, which the international community has been unable to contain.
Finally, Le Monde newspaper states that "the multidimensional attack launched by Iran against Israel did not cause major damage, casualties, territorial invasion or any critical destabilization of the defense system.
Exactly the opposite. Detected from the start, almost all the drones were destroyed, as were the ballistic and cruise missiles launched in a second attack.
This operation was planned and anticipated for days both by the Israeli security apparatus and by its main protector, the United States.
With this unprecedented attack, which took place on Saturday night, Tehran is taking significant risks, not only in terms of possible retaliation on its soil, but also in terms of regional repercussions.
The attack marks a reconnection between the Sunni countries and Israel, after their normalization process was interrupted by the war in Gaza.
Jordan opened its airspace to the Israeli military, a powerful gesture. Diplomatically, Iran is not convincing anyone by citing self-defense and consolidating its pariah status alongside its Russian ally.
By attacking Israel, Tehran rejected growing calls for the United States to condition military aid to the Jewish state.
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