FLASH
Shkruar nga Giovanni Ricci
Geopolitical uncertainty in the Strait of Hormuz is threatening the stability of global energy supplies. Analysts warn that potential disruptions to movement could create a massive deficit, forcing markets to face an acute crisis by the end of the fall.
Analysis of energy flows in the Strait of Hormuz confirms that this remains the most critical node for the global transit of raw materials. Through a quantitative assessment
of flows, it turns out that oil is the least elastic commodity and the most sensitive to short-term shocks, which put supply chains around the world under extreme pressure.
According to a theoretical exercise that considers a 270-day period (from February 28 to November 28), the data projects a net shortage that could reach 1 billion barrels of oil.
This deadline is not coincidental, as it coincides with expectations of severe political consequences for the Trump presidency after the midterm elections, ranging from a Democratic-controlled Congress to a successful impeachment procedure.
It should be noted that other raw materials passing through Hormuz, such as gas, have more efficient balancing mechanisms. For gas, there is an interchangeability with coal of up to about 70 percent.
While elements like phosphates for agriculture or helium for superchips have alternative sources, such as the giant capacities in Siberia that can be easily increased. Consequently, the main and most acute problem remains that of oil.
Under normal conditions, about 6.2 billion barrels pass through this strait over a 270-day period. Although the combined reserves of the US, Europe and China amount to about 3 billion barrels, the fact that they are not coordinated by a single political center highlights the “oceanic” dimension of this supply crisis.
Special attention should be paid to the claim of US energy independence, which is often misinterpreted in the media. Official data from the US Department of Energy shows that this independence does not actually exist.
The US produces about 13.5 million barrels per day (official data from 2025), but about 7 million come from fracking, which is lower quality and requires additional processing with heavier Middle Eastern crude to produce high-quality fuels.
With a daily consumption of about 21 million barrels, the US faces a gap of 7.5 million barrels. About 6.5 million barrels are imported each day, while the rest comes from sources such as ethanol. By comparison, Italy consumes about 1.8 million barrels per day and produces only 35-40 thousand.
US imports rely mainly on Canada (3.5 million barrels), Mexico (1 million) and other parts of the world. Following developments in Venezuela in early January, the US has gained access to a reserve of about 100 million barrels and control over a production of about 1 million barrels per day.
These figures are often used in a distorted way to claim that US production exceeds that of the Arab countries and Russia combined. This is an inaccurate claim that unfairly includes the production of other countries as part of the US. US net domestic consumption is about 17 million barrels per day, much higher per capita than in countries like Italy. If the flows from Hormuz were suddenly cut off, the US would be in the most favorable position among the four major consuming areas, coping for about two years thanks to imports from Canada, Mexico and Venezuela, but without being completely self-sufficient.
This is the framework through which Trump creates exaggerated and highly false realities, as he lumps together and grossly misinterprets large and complex sets of industrial and national situations and realities.
Of the 23 million barrels that pass through Hormuz each day, about 9 million could be diverted to the Arabian coast of the Red Sea. Adding to this the increase in production from Canada, Brazil, Nigeria, Russia or Norway (about 4.5 million barrels), the total shortage over a 270-day period would be about 1.89 billion barrels.
Even if the strategic reserves cover a portion (about 890 million barrels), the remaining shortfall of 1 billion barrels would increase the price of oil (WTI) to $90-100. If this deficit reaches 2.5 billion barrels, then the price would rise to $130-140, causing annual inflation of 13-15 percent in the West for 2-3 years.
The tourism sector would be the industry most directly affected. However, beyond macroeconomics, this analysis highlights the crisis in international relations. A complete closure of Hormuz implies a state of ongoing conflict with risks of military escalation.
What kind of warlike events could occur, even if limited to the regional context of the Middle East? In other words, finding alternative industrial and macroeconomic solutions to the closure of Hormuz makes us appreciate in detail the great strategic and tactical mistake committed by the Trump administration.
A mistake so blatant and uncontrollable that it raises the now urgent question of this president's continued tenure. But if that's the case, why continue to cause harm?
And above all, with the confusion and chaos only growing, how long can the American Congress tolerate Trump's eccentric behavior in the White House? / Adapted from "Pamphlet", from "Il Sussidiario"
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