FLASH
Shkruar nga Luc Bronner
The Israeli opposition, led by Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid, has decided to unite on a joint list for the October elections, with the aim of challenging Benjamin Netanyahu. However, Israel’s fragmented political system makes it uncertain whether the defeat of the current government will automatically lead to the opposition taking power. The alliance is based largely on opposition to Netanyahu, while the two leaders have differences on several policy issues. The final outcome could depend on the role of Arab parties and the ability to build a majority coalition in parliament.
Will Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his far-right allies lose Israel's general election in October? And, if so, can the opposition coalition actually take power?
These are two different questions in Israel's fragmented and complex political system, but, just six months before a potentially decisive election, both are almost equally important to the country's future.
In Israel, the loss of a governing coalition does not guarantee that its rivals will secure the 61-seat majority in the Knesset required to form a stable government.
This dual uncertainty is the main issue in the election campaign. That is why the announcement on Sunday, April 26, by hard-right politician Naftali Bennett and centrist figure Yair Lapid was so significant. The two, who briefly served as prime minister in 2021-2022 as part of a broad eight-party coalition, have decided to join forces again, creating a joint list called “Beyachad” (“together”).
"I am proud that two leaders with different views can fight together for the good of the people of Israel (…) Our unity sends a message to the entire people of Israel: the era of division is over. The era of repair has come," said Bennett, who is running as a potential prime minister of Beyachad if the list wins in October.
His ally had agreed not to take the top spot, although this was a relatively small concession, given that Lapid, the current leader of the parliamentary opposition, has been lagging behind in the polls.
"It is time to part ways with Netanyahu and open a new chapter for Israel," Lapid said, referring to the current prime minister's extraordinarily long political career, during which Netanyahu has held power almost continuously since 2009.
The fragile connection
The announcement was important, but its electoral impact is harder to assess.
"In general, the assumption that the size of a list constitutes a political advantage in itself is highly questionable," write political scientists Assaf Shapira and Gideon Rahat in an article published by the Israel Democracy Institute (IDI).
"First, in the proportional electoral system implemented in Israel, there is almost no electoral advantage for large lists. (…) Second, for the formation of a government, in Israel's parliamentary system, what matters is the size of the coalition built in the Knesset, not the size of each individual list," they further add.
The united front of the two former prime ministers will appeal to a significant segment of the public that opposes Netanyahu. However, for Bennett, a former leader of the Israeli settler movement and a staunch opponent of the creation of a Palestinian state, an alliance with a more moderate candidate could cost him some votes.
"Yair Lapid and I have different views on many issues and we do not hide this; on the contrary, we are proud of it," Bennett said on Sunday.
Hostility to Netanyahu is the main force uniting the opposition bloc. The danger is that the slogan "anyone but Bibi," the prime minister's nickname, will become the only element holding together any coalition that may emerge after the October elections.
As a programmatic measure, the two former prime ministers have declared their intention to pass a law establishing mandatory military service for all, ending the broad exemption for ultra-Orthodox (Haredi) students. They also aim to differentiate themselves from Netanyahu in their approach to governance.
"We will limit the prime minister's term to eight years, and that will apply to me first," Bennett said.
At this point, the political context is in their favor: Netanyahu has been on trial for several years on charges of corruption, fraud and breach of trust. His request for a presidential pardon, submitted in late 2025, is still under consideration by President Isaac Herzog, who has signaled reluctance to grant it under the current circumstances.
The influence of “Arab” parties
On matters of war, however, the list's message was more ambiguous. The two allies said they want to establish a commission of inquiry into the October 7, 2023 attack, something Netanyahu has rejected, to determine responsibility for Israel's security failures in the Hamas attack.
However, they have avoided challenging the aggressive military strategy that Netanyahu has pursued since then, on several fronts: in Gaza, Lebanon, against Iran and in the occupied West Bank. Recent ceasefires with Iran and Hezbollah, imposed by Donald Trump on Netanyahu, have been criticized by the opposition as undermining Israel's sovereignty.
The merger is just a first step. Within the opposition, a third figure is now under strong pressure to join the new joint list: former army chief of staff Gadi Eisenkot (center-right), whose popularity appears to be growing. Yair Golan (Zionist left) and Avigdor Lieberman (nationalist right) could also join the new alliance.
Ultimately, the nature of the next government will depend on the so-called “Arab” parties, which represent Israel’s Palestinian citizens, who make up 20% of the country’s population. Polls currently predict that their candidates will win at least 10 seats, which could prevent either bloc from reaching the crucial 61-seat threshold.
Unless, of course, the Bennett-Lapid duo reaches an agreement with one of these parties, as they did during their previous term in 2021-2022, when they received support from Islamist-conservative figure Mansour Abbas.
Since Sunday, Netanyahu and his allies have used this scenario as the main argument against the new joint list./ Adapted from "Pamphlet", from "Le Monde".
Lini një Përgjigje