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Marine Le Pen and her party, the National Rally (Rassemblement National), are at the center of the political scene in France, as François Bayrou's government heads for collapse ahead of a confidence vote on September 8.
As Politico points out in an analysis, the fall of the French government could be a strategic opportunity for Le Pen, who, although barred from any electoral process due to a conviction for embezzlement of public funds, continues to determine her party's movements and shape the political climate.
The government tried to pass a harsh austerity program of 43.8 billion euros, calculating that Le Pen would not risk destabilization, since she herself cannot be a candidate until her appeal is heard in 2026. However, as soon as the confidence vote was announced, Le Pen made it clear that she would mobilize her deputies to bring down the government, attributing eight years of “Macronism” to the current crisis.
"Only dissolution will allow the French people now to choose their future, that of recovery with the National Rally," she wrote in X.
This stance dispelled any rumors of collaboration with Bayrou. The party’s vice-president, Laurent Jacobelli, commented bitterly: “These people imagine that others are as bad as they are. But that shows that they don’t understand Marine Le Pen, who is not cut from the same cloth.”
For their part, the left-wing parties also announced that they would vote against the government, making its fall almost certain. The prime minister, in an interview with TF1, tried to justify why he had not sought political alliances, claiming that political leaders were “on vacation.” Le Pen countered by saying that she had not stopped working all summer.
Jordan Bardella and Marine Le Pen are expected to meet Bayrou on Tuesday, but the signals from the National Rally leave no room for compromise. If the government falls, Emmanuel Macron will face limited options for Bayrou's successor, with Defense Minister Sébastien Lecreny emerging as a possible candidate.
The pressure for an election is mounting. A new Ifop poll shows that 63% of citizens agree with a return to the polls, with the figure rising to 86% among National Rally voters. However, the same polls warn that any future elections could lead to a parliament without a majority again, a scenario that increases the hesitation of Macron, who still bears the scars of a surprise run-off in 2024.
Despite her judicial ban, Le Pen still exercises decisive control over the party's communications strategy. Bardella, just 29, is now openly calling for Macron's resignation, with her full support.
At the same time, the National Rally is considering legal avenues to challenge the constitutionality of the ban imposed on Le Pen. “We are obviously considering all legal avenues so that even in the event of the dissolution of the National Assembly, Marine Le Pen can be a candidate,” Bardella told TF1.
"There is a legal way out, albeit a narrow one, and Marine Le Pen is fighting for it," he added .
Politico estimates that Le Pen has not abandoned her ambitions and may see the fall of the Bayrou government as an opportunity to bring the National Rally closer to power, either through new elections or through legal overturns that would allow her to return to the ballot box./Politico
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