FLASH
Shkruar nga Pamfleti
By 2025, Russia's war against Ukraine has evolved into a protracted and exhausting conflict, with neither side achieving a decisive strategic breakthrough. Although the front line changed more in 2025 than in 2023 or 2024, Russia's advances remained slow, limited, and extremely costly in terms of both manpower and military equipment.
Moscow increasingly emphasized its battlefield achievements throughout 2025, in an apparent effort to strengthen its position in US-brokered peace talks and portray victory as inevitable.
In late November, Russian President Vladimir Putin declared that Ukrainian forces would have to withdraw from the occupied territories, warning that otherwise Russia would achieve this “by military means.” However, military analysts emphasize that the reality on the ground is much more complex.
“Russia’s progress has been weak, with heavy losses that have failed to meet its stated objectives ,” Michael Kofman told The Washington Post.
According to Kofman, the war now resembles less a conventional campaign by a regular army and more a conflict supported by small infiltration units, low-cost technology, and supplies financed through unofficial channels.
Putin has claimed that Russian forces occupied nearly 5,000 square kilometers of Ukrainian territory in 2025. Russia pushed Ukrainian troops from the Kursk region in the spring and briefly advanced into Ukraine's Sumy region, but the advance there quickly stalled. In eastern Ukraine, Russian forces nearly completed the capture of Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad after almost two years of fighting, while by the end of the year they also claimed control of Huliaipole in Zaporizhzhia and Siversk in Donetsk. However, these advances have been uneven and largely tactical in nature .
"Since 2023, the war has turned into a battle of attrition, in which changes along the front are mainly tactical rather than strategic ," said BBC News military analyst Pavel Aksenov.
In 2025, Russia adapted its tactics, relying increasingly on small strike groups rather than large armored offensives. These units infiltrate Ukrainian positions, identify weak points, and gradually build up local advantages. Drones have played a key role in this phase of the war.
According to analysts at the Atlantic Council, drone warfare began to tilt in Russia’s favor in late 2024, a trend that accelerated throughout 2025. Moscow has been making extensive use of fiber-optic drones resistant to electronic jamming to strike Ukrainian supply lines and positions. At the same time, Russia has been making extensive use of guided aerial bombs and heavy artillery to dismantle Ukrainian defenses.
Despite mobilizing its defense industry and replenishing its forces with contract soldiers, Russia continues to face serious logistical challenges. Units often rely on volunteer initiatives, pro-war bloggers, and private funding to supply them, creating an uneven and unstable support system.
Another persistent problem is the exaggeration of battlefield reports. Russian commanders have repeatedly declared towns captured before the fighting had ended, leading to costly operations aimed at making these claims a reality. The case of Kupiansk - declared several times as captured and later partially retaken by Ukrainian forces - illustrates this practice.
Overall, analysts assess that Russia has adapted more effectively to the realities of modern warfare, particularly through the use of drones and small-unit operations. However, the lack of sufficient manpower and the inability to achieve a deep strategic breakthrough suggest that the war is likely to continue without a decisive victory in sight.
"Russia currently does not have sufficient forces for decisive offensives in any sector of the front ," Aksenov concluded, stressing that even possible breakthroughs would be insufficient to fundamentally change the course of the war.
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