FLASH
Shkruar nga Pamfleti
Now Lukashenko will host another of Putin's dangerous secret weapons, Yevgeny Prigozhin...
Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukashenko has emerged as the biggest beneficiary of Wagner's uprising in Moscow, but those gains may not be long-lived.
Despite doubts about the role that Lukashenko played in the mediation between Wagner and Moscow, he has been portrayed in the Russian press as a hero and the man who saved Moscow.
This is a very big step given the role of "puppet" that Lukashenko has played since Vladimir Putin stepped in to save his regime in the wake of the obvious election loss in 2020.
Over the past three years, Belarus has agreed to form a "union state with Russia," allowed its country to be a springboard for a full-scale invasion of Ukraine, and offered to store Russian tactical nuclear warheads in Belarus, as rumors have swirled. for his health. Now he will host another of Putin's dangerous secret weapons, Yevgeny Prigozhin.
" The President of Belarus informed the President of Russia in detail about the results of negotiations with the leadership of Wagner PMC [private military company]. The President of Russia supported and thanked his Belarusian counterpart for the work done ," said the official statement from Lukashenko's office.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov also said the deal, in which Prigozhin withdrew Wagner's convoy advancing to Moscow on Saturday and agreed to move to Belarus, was "Lukashenko's personal initiative, which was coordinated with President Putin ".
But Belarusian analysts have doubts about this initiative.
" I just don't think we have any strong reason to believe that Prigozhin would listen to Lukashenko and his assurances and that Lukashenko has enough power and voice in Russian domestic politics to broker such deals," Artyom said . Shraibman, researcher at "Carnegie Russia Center Eurasia.
Shraibman, who is also the founder of the political consultancy Sense Analytics, suggested that the governor of the Tula region, Alexei Dyumin, with strong ties to Prigozhin and Putin, was more likely to have been the real broker.
" There are suggestions that Lukashenko was not really a party to the negotiations throughout the day and somehow entered the ring within a very short time after the announcement ," admitted Olga Onuch, a political lecturer at the University of Manchester.
Whatever his true role, Lukashenko is the official guarantor of the deal and at least appears on the Russian stage as a leader in his own right and not just an extension of the Kremlin.
“Ka ndryshuar qartazi marrëdhëniet mes Lukashenkos dhe Kremlinit, sepse pas vitit 2020 ai u bë një lloj kukulle për autoritetet ruse. Ai trajtohej si dikush që nuk ishte i barabartë. Tani mund të thuash se ai është një nga fituesit e këtij grushti të dështuar dhe ai do të rivendosë një pjesë të agjenturës së tij në marrëdhëniet e tij me Rusinë, të paktën në të ardhmen e afërt", tha Ryhor Astapenia, drejtor i iniciativës Bjellorusi në qendrën e mendimit Chatham House.
Perspektiva afatgjatë është e vështirë të matet, jo vetëm sepse dihet kaq pak për marrëveshjen dhe çfarë do të thotë ajo për Bjellorusinë.
Another question is how long Prigozhin can survive in Belarus. Shraibman does not think the direct threat would come from Lukashenko, who would like to be seen to honor his agreement, but whether he could protect his guest from the Kremlin is another matter.
"Prigozhin may be worried about drinking a cup of tea that hasn't been checked by him. I don't expect him to be safe anywhere now ," he said.
Over the coming months and years, Lukashenko should also be worried. The events of the last 48 hours have shaken confidence in the stability of Putin's regime and therefore raised questions about his lasting power./ Adapted "Pamphlet" from "The Guardian"
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