FLASH
Shkruar nga James Risen
Now the chances are good that Putin will kill his rival. The Russian leader has eliminated his opponents for far less than that. And to think that Lukashenko, a soldier of Putin, will protect Prigozhin in Belarus is madness in itself...
In a crazy series of events over the weekend, Russian mercenary leader Prigozhin launched what appeared to be a coup against the Putin regime, marching his Wagner Group mercenaries from their positions in Ukraine, towards Moscow.
They took control of Rostov-on-Don, a major military center, before marching north to Moscow. Prigozhin and his troops encountered little resistance from the Russian army; he was ready to enter the capital and seize power.
But his bravery did not last long. Just as Wagner's forces were closing in on Moscow on Saturday, Prigozhin suddenly overturned. He accepted a deal with the Russian president, brokered by Alexander Lukashenko - the autocratic leader of Belarus and a close ally of Putin.
He announced that his troops would be turned back. Prigozhin agreed to leave Russia and go into a kind of exile in Belarus, while Putin agreed to drop the charge of armed rebellion against Prigozhin and grant immunity to his men in connection with the rebellion.
But it remains unclear what Saturday's agreement actually means and whether it represents an end to the crisis or just a short-term tactical shift in an ongoing duel between Prigozhin and Putin.
But one thing is clear: Prigozhin lost his torua on Saturday. He had a golden opportunity to take power at a time when Putin was surprised and vulnerable. The Russian military had many of its resources in Ukraine, and Wagner's heavily armed forces at least had the potential to overwhelm the remaining Russian security services guarding Moscow.
But Prigozhin's moment was short-lived. Now the chances are good that Putin will kill his rival. The Russian leader has eliminated his opponents for much less, and to think that Lukashenko, a soldier of Putin, will defend Prigozhin in Belarus is madness in itself. Moscow has a long reach; Putin has had many opponents who have been killed in the West and also in Minsk, the capital of Belarus, which can be called a suburb of Moscow.
If Prigozhin believes that Putin will stick to their agreement, he is not thinking straight, which may be why he launched the coup attempt in the first place.
Putin is also a 'living dead' because his poor ability to hold power has now been exposed to the world. Prigozhin's rebellion has revealed that Putin's regime is an empty shell and does not really have a monopoly on violence in Russia.
On Saturday, Putin delivered an angry national speech, calling Prigozhin's rebellion treasonous and "a knife in the back of our country and our people." But just a few hours later, he negotiated the deal with Prigozhin. Putin's actions showed the Russian people and the rest of the world that when faced with a powerful opponent, he will turn a blind eye. This is certainly the lesson being learned now by leaders in Ukraine and NATO.
Putin's only game to stay in power may be to kill Prigozhin once he is in exile in Belarus. Prigozhin, meanwhile, is condemned to wait for his killer, as he wonders what might have happened if he hadn't backed down from the uprising./ TheIntercept
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