FLASH
Shkruar nga Daniel Serwer
If Belgrade is occupied, NATO troops would fail to repel the Serbian army. Albania would then propose a referendum on joining Kosovo.
The coming year promises to be a challenging year, both at home and abroad. I'll leave the predictions within the US to others. Abroad I expect the new Trump administration to disappoint in many ways.
Ukraine
The Trumpians have already proposed to Russian President Putin an end to the war in Ukraine along the current lines of confrontation. Ukraine would stay out of NATO for 20 years. The Europeans would monitor the ceasefire. But Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov has described this generous ceasefire offer as a non-starter. The Russians want all of Ukraine, not part of it. They want President Zelensky out and their puppet installed. And they want a permanent obstacle to NATO membership for Ukraine.
It was certainly a mistake for Trump to present a peace proposal even before taking office. This is by definition a moment of weakness. But Trump has never shown strength in dealing with Putin. His failure to support the Ukrainians will allow Russia to continue gaining territory. Unless Moscow suffers an economic or political collapse, the war will continue with Ukraine at a disadvantage. Biden neglected to give Ukraine everything it wanted. Trump will refuse to give her everything she needs.
Middle East
This will have consequences in other areas. Russia will keep its bases in Syria. It will use them to protect the west of the Alawite plurality from alleged abuses by Damascus. This will de facto divide Syria, just as Russian policy has de facto divided Ukraine. Trump will be reluctant to lift sanctions on Syria, limiting the peace dividend for Syrians. He will withdraw American troops, weakening the Kurds. The most extreme armed groups in Syria will strengthen. Pro-democracy forces will weaken.
Trump will support Israel's expanded role in the region. This would include security control not only over Gaza and the West Bank, but also Lebanon south of the Litani River, the Golan Heights, Jordan and the Sinai. Israel will engage the US in an attack on Iranian nuclear sites that will succeed in curbing the program. But it will also give Tehran reason to redouble its nuclear efforts.
The Houthis will continue their attacks on Israel and shipping in the Red Sea. Intensified US and Israeli bombing will fail to drive them out of Sanaa.
BALKANS
Russia's success in Ukraine and Syria as well as Israel's in neighboring countries will encourage irredentist ambitions in the Balkans. Serbia will continue to look for a pretext to move to the north of Kosovo, claiming that Serbs are mistreated there. If Belgrade is occupied, NATO troops would fail to repel the Serbian army. Albania would then propose a referendum on joining Kosovo. The net result would be the ethnic cleansing of Serbs from Kosovo south of the Ibar and Albanians from southern Serbia. Republika Srpska would secede from Bosnia and Herzegovina, prompting ethnic cleansing and the division of the state into three parts.
China and Taiwan
Under Elon Musk's influence, Trump will allow Bytedance to continue operating TikTok in the US. But he will continue with increased tariffs on imports from China, which will be retaliated with tariffs on American goods. The resulting trade war will throw the world economy into chaos.
Unwilling to fulfill US alliance commitments, Trump will encourage South Korea and Taiwan to acquire their nuclear weapons. This will cause Beijing and Pyongyang to accelerate their nuclear build-up, worsening the security situation in the Pacific.
What was missing?
Trump will ignore some wars in Africa. It will end US efforts to deal with climate change. He will continue to talk about taking over Canada, Greenland and the Panama Canal, but these ambitions are smokescreens. Trump's real ambition is to make everything about him. He is not afraid of failure because he has faith that he can turn it around as success. That's what he's really good at. At least half of America believes it./ Adapted "Pamphlet" from "Peacefare"
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