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Here's a selection of important issues worth paying attention to in 2024, from coups to superhero movies.
Some are just fun while others are potentially world changing.
Is enthusiasm for AI chatbots waning?
ChatGPT attracted 100 million users within two months of its launch in November 2022, but user visits peaked in mid-2023 and have since declined. This may indicate an enthusiasm for chatbots in general. Or it could simply signal that users have gotten smarter and switched to other chatbots that are better suited for particular tasks.
When will renewables overtake coal?
Renewable energy supplies, such as solar and wind power, will soon overtake coal-fired power plants to become the world's largest single source of electricity, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA). But when?
Having previously said it would be in 2025, the IEA now thinks this could happen in 2024, "as a result of the accelerating pace of renewable capacity additions" and "increased coal-fired electricity generation". The adoption of renewables in Europe has been accelerated by the war in Ukraine: EU countries already added 41 gigawatts (gw) of solar capacity in 2022 and are expected to add more than 50 GW in 2023.
China added 107 G of solar capacity in 2022, roughly equal to all existing capacity in the Americas, and is expected to have added the solar capacity of the two Americas by 2023.
Meanwhile, coal use for generation grew by 1.7% in 2022. But coal use in Europe and the Americas in 2024 is projected to decline sharply, more than offsetting a slight increase in Asia.
Will superhero movies make a comeback?
In 2023, superhero movies were overshadowed by "Barbie," whose plastic heroine fought the patriarchy with frequent wardrobe changes instead of superhuman powers, and "Oppenheimer," a biopic of a non-superman ( but very clever).
Much speculation ensued as to whether the appetite for endless superhero movies from Marvel and its imitators was gone. So the stage is set for a showdown in 2024, when superhero releases include "Captain America: Brave New World," "Deadpool 3" and two Spider-Man spin-offs, "El Muerto" and "Madame Web."
They face "Mickey 17," Bong Joon Ho's sequel to "Parasite" and "Gladiator 2."
Will your cup of coffee become more expensive?
Coffee consumption is now outpacing production, according to the International Coffee Organization. The gap could widen in 2024: extreme weather in Brazil at the end of 2023 could reduce the arabica bean crop, while El Niño threatens to reduce robusta bean yields in Indonesia.
Coffee producers may need to consider growing in new areas as the planet warms and encourage coffee drinkers to embrace a third 'species', called liberica, which is more heat tolerant.
Will wild polio go away?
Eradication programs have a good chance of eliminating the wild virus in the coming months. The focus is shifting to eliminating a new form of the disease, vaccine-derived polio, which is on the rise.
2024 could be the first year without wild polio. Pakistan and Afghanistan are the last countries where the disease is endemic. Cases have decreased and are limited to small geographic areas.
Will the number of coups continue to increase?
Coups have returned, and especially in sub-Saharan Africa, after a lull in the 2010s.. Of the 18 coup attempts since 2021, nine have succeeded. Coups tend to happen for one of two reasons: either a security collapse, as in Niger and Mali, where generals claimed to be restoring order; or when an unpopular leader does not like the welcome, as in Gabon.
Instability in the Sahel shows no signs of abating, so further strikes are likely. But where? Analysts at BMI, a research firm, think South Sudan is most at risk, followed by the Central African Republic, much of which is no longer under government control. SBM Intelligence, a Nigerian firm, thinks the chances are higher in the Democratic Republic of Congo.
And keep an eye on Equatorial Guinea, which is led by Africa's longest-serving leader, Teodoro Obiang Nguema Mbasogo, now 81. A succession crisis could trigger a coup.
When will China take the lead in car exports?
The transition to electric vehicles (EV) has reshaped the car industry. In many ways, EVs have more in common with smartphones than with combustion engine vehicles; they contain fewer moving parts and are mechanically much less complex.
The current manufacturers who excel at building engines and gearboxes have lost their competitive edge.
In 2024, China will overtake Germany and Japan to become the world's largest car exporter, driven by demand for EVs. Undoubtedly, Chinese car exports include many vehicles manufactured by Tesla, an American firm, in its Chinese factory. But Tesla, the world's largest manufacturer of EVs, will be overtaken by BYD, a Chinese firm, which will sell more vehicles both within China and globally.
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