FLASH
Shkruar nga Pamfleti
Against this bleak backdrop for the West, it's hard to see hope...
This year has brought a series of setbacks for the US, Europe and other major democracies on the stage of international politics. None have been catastrophic, so far. But they show that the balance of power is shifting away from US-dominated Western values that have held sway for years.
On many fronts, the wind is blowing in the wrong direction for Western interests. But what can be gained from the changes taking place:
Ukraine
The war on Europe's eastern borders is going badly for Ukraine. This means that things are also going badly for NATO and the EU, which have financed Ukraine's war effort and its economy to the tune of tens of billions of dollars.
Hopes were high last year, with NATO claiming that Ukraine's military could push back the advantage it had gained in the autumn and push the Russians out of much of the territory they had seized. This has not happened.
The problem has been time. NATO countries took a long time to decide whether to send modern main battle tanks such as Britain's Challenger 2 and Germany's Leopard 2 to Ukraine, in case it did not provoke President Vladimir Putin and retaliate.
In the end, the West handed over the tanks, President Putin did nothing. But by the time they were ready to deploy to the battlefield in June, Russian commanders had prepared where the main Ukrainian offensive would take place.
According to the West, Ukraine would advance south through the Zaporizhzhia region towards the Sea of Azov, passing through Russian lines, and finally emerging into Crimea.
The Russian military may have performed exceptionally well in its bid to capture Kiev in 2022, but where it shines is defense. All the while Ukrainian brigades were training in Britain and elsewhere during the first half of 2023, and as tanks were being sent east, Russia was building the largest and most extensive lines of defensive fortifications in modern history.
Anti-tank mines, anti-personnel mines, bunkers, trenches, tank traps, drones and artillery have all combined to thwart Ukraine's plans. Kiev's much-vaunted counterattack has failed.
For Ukraine and the West, the measurements are almost all in the wrong direction. Ukraine has a severe shortage of ammunition and soldiers. Congress is blocking the White House's efforts to push through a $50 billion military aid package. Hungary is putting the brakes on the EU's 50 billion euro aid package.
One or both may pass eventually, but it may be too late. Ukrainian forces should now go on the defensive. Meanwhile, Moscow has put its economy on a war footing, devoting a third of its national budget to defense while dropping thousands of artillery shells on Ukraine's front lines.
Of course, this situation is deeply disappointing for Ukraine, which until now had hoped to have turned the tide of the war in its favor. But why does it matter to the West?
This matters because President Putin, who personally ordered this invasion nearly two years ago, only needs to hold the territory he has captured (roughly 18% of Ukraine) to declare a victory.
NATO has emptied its armory and has done everything to support its ally, Ukraine. Meanwhile, the Baltic states - Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, all NATO members - are convinced that if Putin can succeed in Ukraine, they will meet the same fate within five years.
Vladimir Putin
The Russian president is a wanted person. In theory.
In March 2023, he was indicted by the International Criminal Court in The Hague, along with his Commissioner for Children's Rights, for war crimes committed against Ukrainian children.
The West hoped that this would make him an international example and he would withdraw and isolate himself and fear traveling due to arrest and deportation to The Hague. This has not happened.
Since that indictment, President Putin has been to Kyrgyzstan, China, the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia, each time receiving a red carpet welcome. He also participated virtually in the Brics summit in South Africa.
Round after round of EU sanctions were supposed to bring the Russian economy to its knees, forcing Putin to retreat from his occupation. However, Russia has proven to be remarkably resilient to these sanctions, sourcing many products through other countries such as China and Kazakhstan. True, the West has largely turned away from Russian oil and gas, but Moscow has found other willing customers, albeit at a reduced price.
The fact is that while Putin's brutal invasion of Ukraine is repugnant to Western countries, it is largely not to the rest of the world. Many countries see this as Europe's problem, with some blaming NATO, saying it provoked Russia by expanding too far east. These nations appear unmoved by the large-scale torture and abuses committed by Russia's occupying troops.
Gaza
The West, according to Arab ministers recently, has double standards. "Your governments are hypocrites," Riyadh said to the West. Why do you expect us to condemn Russia for killing civilians in Ukraine when you reject a ceasefire in Gaza where thousands of civilians are being killed?
Lufta Izrael-Hamas ka qenë qartësisht katastrofike për të gjithë banorët e Gazës dhe për ata izraelitë të prekur nga sulmi vrasës i Hamasit në Izraelin jugor më 7 tetor. Kjo ka qenë keq edhe për Perëndimin.
Ajo ka larguar vëmendjen globale nga aleati i NATO-s, Ukraina, teksa përpiqet të ndalojë përparimet ruse këtë dimër. Ajo ka devijuar municionet amerikane nga Kievi në favor të Izraelit.
Por mbi të gjitha, në sytë e shumë myslimanëve dhe të tjerëve anembanë botës, ajo ka bërë që SHBA dhe Britania e Madhe të duken bashkëfajtore në shkatërrimin e Gazës duke mbrojtur Izraelin në OKB. Rusia, forcat ajrore të së cilës bombarduan qytetin e Aleppos në Siri, ka parë rritje të aksioneve të saj në Lindjen e Mesme që nga 7 tetori.
Lufta është përhapur tashmë në Detin e Kuq jugor, ku Houthi-t e mbështetur nga Irani po lëshojnë drone dhe raketa shpërthyese në anije, duke rritur çmimet e mallrave pasi kompanitë kryesore të transportit në botë detyrohen të devijojnë deri në skajin jugor të Afrikës.
Irani
Irani është nën dyshimin për zhvillimin e fshehtë të një arme bërthamore, të cilin ai e mohon. Megjithatë, pavarësisht përpjekjeve perëndimore, ajo është larg nga të qenit e izoluar, pasi ka shtrirë tentakulat e saj ushtarake në Irak, Siri, Liban, Jemen dhe Gaza përmes milicive përfaqësuese që financon, stërvit dhe armatosur.
Këtë vit, ka krijuar një aleancë gjithnjë e më të ngushtë me Moskën, të cilën e siguron me një furnizim të pashtershëm në dukje të dronëve Shahed për t'u nisur në qytetet dhe qytetet e Ukrainës.
I cilësuar si një kërcënim armiqësor nga disa vende perëndimore, Irani ka përfituar nga lufta e Gazës duke u pozicionuar në Lindjen e Mesme si një kampion i çështjes palestineze.
Sahel i Afrikës
Një nga një, vendet e rajonit të Sahelit të Afrikës Perëndimore u janë nënshtruar grushteve ushtarake që kanë parë dëbimin e forcave evropiane që po ndihmonin për të luftuar një kryengritje xhihadiste në rajon.
Ish-kolonitë franceze të Malit, Burkina Fasos dhe Republikës së Afrikës Qendrore ishin kthyer tashmë kundër evropianëve kur në korrik, një tjetër grusht shteti pa përmbysjen e një presidenti properëndimor në Niger. Trupat e fundit franceze tani janë larguar nga vendi, megjithëse 600 trupa amerikane mbeten atje në dy baza.
Në zëvendësim të forcave franceze dhe ndërkombëtare janë mercenarët rusë të grupit Wagner, i cili ka arritur të kapet pas marrëveshjeve fitimprurëse të biznesit, pavarësisht vdekjes misterioze të liderit të saj, Yevgeny Prigozhin, në një aksident avioni në gusht.
Ndërkohë, Afrika e Jugut, e parë dikur si një aleate perëndimore, ka mbajtur stërvitje të përbashkëta detare me luftanijet ruse dhe kineze.
Korea e Veriut
Republika Popullore Demokratike e Koresë supozohet të jetë nën sanksione të rrepta ndërkombëtare për shkak të programit të saj të ndaluar të armëve bërthamore dhe raketave balistike.
However, this year, it has forged close ties with Russia, with its leader Kim Jong Un visiting a Russian space station that delivered a million artillery shells to Russian forces fighting in Ukraine.
North Korea has tested several intercontinental ballistic missiles, which are now believed to be capable of reaching most parts of the continental US.
China
To some extent, 2023 has seen an easing of tension between Beijing and Washington, with a largely successful summit between Presidents Biden and Xi in San Francisco.
But China has shown no sign of backing down on its claims over much of the South China Sea, releasing a new "standard" map that extends its claims almost to the coasts of several Asian countries - The Pacific.
Nor has it given up its claims on Taiwan, which it has vowed to "take back," by force if necessary.
Is there room for optimism?
Against this bleak backdrop for the West, it is perhaps hard to see hope. But on the positive side for the West, the NATO alliance has clearly rediscovered its defensive purpose. The Western unanimity shown so far towards Ukraine has surprised many, although some divisions are now beginning to emerge.
But it is happening for the Middle East where there is the greatest potential for improvement. This is partly due to the horrific scale of events that have unfolded on both sides of the Gaza-Israel border.
Before October 7, the search for a solution to the question of a future Palestinian state had been largely abandoned. A certain complacency had crept into Israel's relationship with the Palestinians that this was a problem that could somehow be managed through security measures without having to make any serious moves to offer them a state of their own.
That formula has now been shown to be fatally flawed. One world leader after another has declared that Israelis will not be able to live in the peace and security they deserve unless the Palestinians can do the same.
Finding a just and lasting solution to a problem that spans history will be incredibly difficult and will ultimately involve painful compromises and sacrifices on both sides if it is to succeed. But now finally, it has caught the attention of the world. /Adapted "Pamphlet" from "BBC "
Lini një Përgjigje