FLASH
Shkruar nga Pamfleti
The US is increasing its military presence in the Middle East, fueling speculation about a possible ground intervention in Iran if negotiations fail. However, the lack of capabilities needed for a prolonged conflict and the high risk of casualties make such an operation unlikely. The analysis highlights that the US is more likely to continue pressure through existing military means than to undertake a large-scale ground invasion.
The White House is officially giving diplomacy time to end the war in Iran. However, US troops are arriving in the Middle East, raising questions about whether Donald Trump is preparing to order a final strike on the Iranian regime with a ground intervention if negotiations fail.
About 3,500 US Marines and sailors have already arrived in the region, as reports and scenarios increase about the possibility that the US president may order a ground attack against Iran.
According to U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM), sailors and Marines aboard the USS Tripoli (LHA 7) arrived in the area of responsibility on March 27. The America-class amphibious ship serves as the command ship of the Tripoli Amphibious Readiness Group/31st Marine Expeditionary Unit, consisting of approximately 3,500 personnel, as well as transport and combat aircraft, amphibious assault vehicles, and tactical capabilities.
Also, about 2,000 paratroopers from the 82nd Airborne Division are being deployed to operations. This unit can deploy anywhere in the world within 18 hours of receiving the order and secure positions in enemy territory in preparation for ground operations.
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio has said the US believes it can achieve its objectives without sending ground troops. However, according to the Guardian, the presence of thousands of Marines in the region gives Trump the opportunity to order an attack, either to gain negotiating leverage to reopen the Strait of Hormuz or to limit Iran's ability to keep it closed by force.
However, the lack of heavy armored units, logistical support, and other elements necessary for a protracted conflict limits the White House's ability to escalate the war and avoid a stalemate with severe consequences for the global economy.
The most important target is considered to be Kharg Island, off the coast of Iran, through which about 90% of the country's crude oil exports pass. Losing control of the island would be a major blow to Tehran. Trump had proposed an attack on Kharg since the 1980s.
US forces in the region are far fewer than in operations in Iraq and Afghanistan. A landing in Kharg would face attacks from Iranian drones, missiles and artillery, while the US would need time to position itself, giving Iran the opportunity to mine the area.
Even if the island were to be taken, it remains unclear how long it would be held, and the US could intensify its bombing. According to the Chief of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Dan Caine, the US has already struck 90 targets in Kharg.
Other targets include islands in the Strait of Hormuz, such as Qeshm, a base for Iranian attack vehicles, and Larak, a hub for weapons used to blockade the strait. According to Axios, attacks on the island of Abu Musa are also being considered.
The troops sent could also be used for other missions, such as searching for 440kg of enriched uranium that went missing after the June attacks. According to the Guardian, the US is considering sending special forces to find and recover it.
Such a mission would be long and high-risk, as Iran has experience in asymmetric warfare. Analyst Max Boot stressed that there is great concern about American casualties, which makes the large-scale use of ground forces highly unlikely.
Currently, Trump has postponed the threat to destroy Iranian energy infrastructure until April 6, while negotiations continue. According to the Guardian, due to the high risks, the most likely scenario is escalation through the means that the US has used since the beginning of the war. / Adapted from "Pamphlet"
Nqs duan te kthehet ne nje Vietnam, le te futen.
Vetem me bomba nukleare mund ta kapitulloj iranin.. Menyre tjeter nuk ka. Pushtimi tokesor do ishte vetvrases per usa.. Terreni iranian eshte malor dhurat nga perendia qe gjith kufiri toksor eshte malor komplet.. Nga deti e pame shum mire deshtimin spektakolar te pushtimit. Pavarsisht qe shitet si sukses nga usa.
Korea, Vietnam,Laos, Cuba, Irak, Afganistan e me duket se behen 45 luftra te hapura nga Amerika pas luftes se dyte boterore e kane ikur me bishtin nen shale si qen i rrahur. Ah, po kane bere deme te pallogariteshme por kane humbur, por u jane vrare edhe shume bij nenash. Nuk e kuptoj se si nuk vene mend!? Shrytezojne bote ne te gjitha format, qe te: Uber, Facebook, Instagram, Twitter (X), Nike, New Balance, Coca Cola, Mac Donald's, Burger King, Ford, Exxon Mobil, Chevron, Bank of America e lista nuk ka fund. Eshte e cuditshme qe ne transportin urban ne te gjitha kryeqytetet e botes ku eshte transporti me i dendur shumica e pasagjereve qe shkojne e vijne nga puna jane me kollare e me canta zyrtaresh. Sheh me pak njerez te thjeshte e ndertues. Pse? Sepse nga eksperienca ime, ne se ne faprike, objekt, magazina e markete shitjesh jane shume me pak njeres qe u kullon djersa se sa kalemxhinjte (burokratet) qe llogarisin e kontrollojne veprimtarine e tyre me compjutera. Cfare bejne keta te cmendur qe hapin luftra, a kane shpirt apo jo?