FLASH
Shkruar nga Daniel Serwer
In the process, he is ending Israeli democracy, earning the enmity of much of the Arab street, and dragging the US into another war in the Middle East.
Prime Minister Netanyahu has spent the 31 years since the Oslo accords pursuing two main foreign policy goals: preventing the creation of a Palestinian state and destroying the Islamic Republic of Iran. He is on the verge of getting a chance to achieve both. In the process, he is ending Israeli democracy, earning the enmity of much of the Arab street, and dragging the US into another war in the Middle East.
- The disappearance of the idea of a Palestinian state
I remember in the mid-1990s a discussion at a mutual friend's house with then Vice President Gore's National Security Advisor. Leon Fuerth believed that Netanyahu would eventually succeed in accepting a Palestinian state. I had my doubts. I still think I was right.
Netanyahu spent many years afterward promoting the idea that Israel was under siege, both by the Palestinians and the Iranians. The Second Intifada and the wall that Israel built to isolate itself, successfully, from the West Bank increased its credibility. After Hamas took over Gaza from the Palestinian Authority in 2006/7, it worked hard to keep the two governing bodies separate. Separating the Palestinians was a way to make sure they couldn't get what they wanted.
-To defeat Iran
Hezbollah is Iran's most important ally/proxy in the region. Israel has now destroyed perhaps 50% of its missile supply and killed an even greater proportion of Hezbollah leaders. The pager/walkie-talkie attack two weeks ago crippled thousands of his cadre. Israeli troops are now on the ground in southern Lebanon seeking to push back Hezbollah forces north of the Litani River.
-Netanyahu is imagining that the regime in Iran is close to collapse
He will be pleased with the results of yesterday's Iranian attack with 180 missiles. Israel appears to have suffered little damage and no known strategic losses. Many of the missiles were destroyed before hitting their targets by US, Israeli and other unnamed defenses.
However, revenge is all but certain. Netanyahu has been looking for an opportunity to strike Iran for decades. The Israelis are likely to target nuclear and oil production facilities. Nuclear facilities will be difficult to destroy, as the vital ones are well embedded underground. The best the IDF can hope for is to block some of the entry routes. Oil facilities are more vulnerable. Oil and natural gas are Iran's main exports. If they don't flow, the economy will deflate.
-Content is not an option
Americans and Europeans will call for restraint on Israel. They don't want a regional war. Netanyahu is not listening. His political future depends on continuing the fighting and achieving a spectacular military success. Hamas has denied it in Gaza. So far, Hezbollah has proved an easier target. Netanyahu knows that President Biden will do nothing to block Israel's arms supplies. And he wants to increase Trump's chances of winning the presidency. So he has no reason to hold back an attack he has wanted to launch for decades.
Netanyahu's ruling coalition has only a small majority in the Knesset. But his allies and his Likud political party have given him a white check in pursuing a regional war. Arab states are protesting the war in Gaza, but doing little to prevent Israel from attacking Hamas, Hezbollah, the Houthis and Iran. All of them are a curse for the Gulf monarchies./ Adapted "Pamphlet" from "Peacfare"
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