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If EU elections were held today, the right-wing European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) would become the third largest group in the 89-seat European Parliament...
Right-wing and Eurosceptic parties will grow in the upcoming European elections at the expense of centrist parties.
If EU elections were held today, the right-wing European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) would become the third largest group in the 89-seat European Parliament.
This would represent a massive increase of 23 seats from the 2019 election for the once-Eurosceptic ECR. Most of the increase would come from Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni's far-right Brothers.
Similarly in Germany, the far-right group Identity and Democracy (ID) would make significant gains, winning 77 seats - a 15-seat increase driven by the recent surge of far-right party Alternative for Germany (AfD).
The expected shift to the right reflects a broader trend in national elections in Europe, where voters in countries such as Italy, Finland and Greece have increasingly supported more conservative and right-wing parties.
That said, POLITICO's analysis shows that the center-right European People's Party (EPP) will retain its place as Parliament's largest group, despite a projected loss of 12 seats, taking it to 165 seats.
The centre-left Socialists and Democrats (S&D) would even gain two seats to maintain its place as group no. 2 of the Parliament, with 145 seats. Meanwhile, the far-right ECR would suffer an increase that would push it to third place, according to Politico's analysis.
This means that the traditional grand coalition of the EPP, S&D and Renew, which stretches from the center-left to the center-right, would hold its clear majority over a potential new right-leaning alliance of the EPP, the ECR and Renew.
Recently, however, the EPP has shown a willingness to partner with the ECR, allying with the group to oppose Green Deal legislation.
The biggest losers in the election would be the Greens, who would hold just 48 seats, a loss of 24 seats, while the Left would gain eight seats but remain the smallest group in Parliament with 45 seats. .
Europeans will go to the polls from June 6 to 9 next year to choose the 705 MEPs who represent them in Brussels. The number of MEPs is expected to rise to 720 for the 2024 elections, but as the changes still need to be formally approved by the European Council and Parliament itself, poll estimates are based on a scenario of 705 seats./ Politico
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