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British Prime Minister Keir Starmer is facing a battle for his political survival, weakened by the scandal surrounding the appointment of Peter Mandelson to the post of ambassador to the United States, despite his links to sex offender Jeffrey Epstein.
The 63-year-old Labour leader's popularity has fallen sharply since he took power after the party's landslide victory in the 2024 election, and his party's MPs are now openly expressing their dissatisfaction.
Can he stay in power?
Starmer reiterated yesterday that he has no intention of resigning. " Nothing will distract me from my mission to serve our country," he declared during the weekly question session in the House of Commons.
He also assessed that the testimony of former senior Foreign Office official Olly Robbins, who was dismissed last Thursday, "put an end to all charges against him", namely the charges that he had misled parliament when he stated that "all necessary procedures" had been followed during the review of the Mandelson file.
Robbins confirmed that he had not informed Downing Street that the Foreign Office had given Mandelson security clearance to take up the ambassadorship in January 2025, despite the opposing opinion of the committee responsible for vetting his background.
However, the pressure on Starmer is not easing. Downing Street now faces allegations that it had considered giving a diplomatic post to the prime minister's former communications director, Matthew Doyle.
Doyle, who held the post from July 2024 to March 2025, was appointed a life member of the House of Lords in 2025 but was expelled from the Labour Party in February after his links to a former Labour MP twice convicted of possessing indecent images of children were revealed.
Starmer's spokesman told reporters yesterday that the government remains united in its support for the prime minister. However, while some ministers have publicly expressed their support, others have kept their distance, highlighting the cracks within the government.
"The cabinet's support seems to be weakening. As a result, its political authority is collapsing," Patrick Diamond, a former Downing Street adviser during previous Labour governments, told AFP.
"If ministers decide to resign, this will most likely mark the end of his term," he added, referring to the precedent of Boris Johnson.
"He seems to be at the mercy of developments beyond his control, a situation that is never favorable for a prime minister," said Diamond, currently a professor at Queen Mary University of London.
Under what circumstances might he be forced to leave?
Starmer could also be forced to resign if a significant number of Labour MPs challenge his authority. At least 81 of the party's more than 400 MPs would need to back an alternative candidate to trigger a by-election.
His inner circle insists the prime minister will resist any attempt to force him out, a development that could deepen divisions within the party.
A decisive moment could come after local elections scheduled for May 7 in England, Scotland and Wales, which are expected to be difficult for Labour.
"Any candidate to replace him will want Starmer to take full responsibility for the results, which are expected to be very negative," Stephen Fielding, a professor at the University of Nottingham, told AFP.
Who can follow him?
Fielding believes that former deputy prime minister Angela Rayner, a well-known figure on the left wing of the party, could be a strong candidate, although she has not yet fully overcome a tax scandal that forced her to resign last year.
Another name often mentioned is Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham, who must first return to parliament, however.
Other candidates include Health Minister Wes Streeting and Home Affairs Minister Shabana Mahmood, who enjoys support on the right wing of the party but is considered by some to be divisive.
A more unifying figure, such as Defense Secretary John Healey or Armed Forces Secretary Al Carns, could emerge to bridge internal divisions.
The lack of a clear successor could work in Starmer's favor and give him the opportunity to weather the current crisis. "He retains significant advantages, particularly because of the size of his parliamentary majority," Diamond concluded.
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