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The campaign for the 2027 French presidential election has begun earlier than usual, but the far-right National Rally party remains awaiting a key decision on its candidacy. French media reported that a court announced on Wednesday that it will rule on Marine Le Pen's appeal against a five-year ban on running, a measure that excluded her from the race, on July 7.
Le Pen was found guilty last year of illegally using European Parliament funds, which the ruling said were used to pay assistants who only carried out political activity within France. She has appealed the decision.
Until the court rules, the party faces uncertainty over its presidential candidate: Marine Le Pen or Jordan Bardella, currently 30, considered a “plan B.” The situation has reportedly created internal tensions, as Le Pen has spent the last few weeks in court hearings, while Bardella has taken part in interviews, meetings and public activities typical of a front-runner.
A close adviser to Bardella, quoted by the media on condition of anonymity, said he is being careful in any public statements to avoid creating the impression that the party has already ruled out Le Pen as a candidate, although the chances of a successful appeal appear to be diminishing.
Le Pen has said she will make a final decision on running once the court ruling is announced. In recent days, she has suggested she is unlikely to further challenge a ban if it is confirmed.
"I will not risk damaging the presidential election," she told reporters in the courtroom last week.
A close ally of Le Pen acknowledged that the waiting period will be difficult for the party, but stressed that this should not hinder preparations for the campaign.
Meanwhile, recent polls show a surge in support for Bardella. According to a poll by the Odoxa institute, 69 percent of National Rally supporters believe Bardella would be a stronger candidate than Le Pen. The same poll shows that he enjoys higher positive ratings even outside the party base and is perceived positively by the majority of voters of the conservative Les Républicains party, whose support is considered crucial for a victory for the far right.
During a visit to the south of France to support a candidate in local elections, Bardella was greeted by supporters chanting his name as the next president, according to French media reports. In an interview with broadcaster BFMTV, he declared that he would remain “totally loyal to Marine Le Pen” and that the party would be competitive in the next presidential election “no matter what happens.”
The French far right has long argued that the political and institutional system works against it, and sees the Le Pen case as part of this context. This constitutes a political interpretation of the situation by the party itself.
The National Rally also faces the challenge of preparing two different campaign scenarios. According to a Le Pen ally, the strategy for a fourth run would differ significantly from the approach to Bardella, who would be entering the presidential race for the first time.
“A new candidate requires a new approach and a new message ,” he said, emphasizing that the party cannot simply rely on previous formulas.
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