FLASH
Shkruar nga Arjan Hoxha
Why is Albania penalized in the "Fund for Peace" index?
Reading in the media today about the “ Fund for Peace ” report, I became curious about where our country, Albania, ranked compared to neighboring countries. Especially since my profession and the commitments related to it have made me work frequently and for a long time in the countries of the Western Balkans region and in Turkey, I feel exposed to the different institutional and social realities of the region. In this context, without assuming the role of an expert who knows everything, I thought of making a simple analysis and comparison between Albania and Bosnia and Herzegovina, which surprisingly ranks higher in this ranking of State Fragility.
First, a few words about the organization itself. The Fund for Peace is a United States-based think tank, founded in 1957, that analyzes conflicts, stability, and peacebuilding. The Fragile States Index is one of its most well-known products and is published annually. The index is based on 12 indicators that measure pressures and risks in areas such as security, the economy, state legitimacy, human rights, demographic pressures, migration, and external interference. The methodology combines statistical data with content analysis of public and media sources.
It is important to understand that this index does not directly measure the quality of day-to-day governance, progress in European integration, or the efficiency of the administration. It measures the level of “domestic stress and pressure” and structural risks that a country experiences.
At first glance, many would think that Bosnia and Herzegovina should prove more fragile than Albania. Its constitutional system, built on the Dayton Agreement, is complex and often blocked by ethnic divisions and political vetoes. Decision-making is fragmented and political tensions are periodically present.
However, in some indicators of the index, Bosnia may be less exposed to some types of pressures. Since the end of the war in the 1990s, the country has not experienced internal armed conflict. There is a continuous international presence and support that serves as a stabilizing factor. In some economic aspects, Bosnia has a more consolidated industrial base and a higher gross domestic product per capita than Albania.
On the other hand, Albania faces significant demographic and social challenges. High emigration, especially of young people and professionals, population decline and the loss of human capital are factors that weigh heavily on the index indicators. Dependence on remittances and perceptions of corruption or economic inequalities are also elements that influence the assessment.
Thus, although Albania has a clearer state structure and more centralized decision-making compared to Bosnia, demographic and economic pressures may increase the level of fragility according to the index methodology.
Essentially, we are dealing with two different forms of fragility. Bosnia has a more institutional and political fragility, due to its constitutional architecture and internal divisions. Albania has a more socio-economic and demographic fragility. The index summarizes all these dimensions in a single result, which sometimes creates unexpected perceptions.
This does not mean that Albania is more unstable or at risk of destabilization. Both countries are classified in the moderate warning category and face different challenges, but also important elements of stability.
Ultimately, international rankings should be read carefully and in context. They provide a general overview of structural risks, but are no substitute for in-depth analysis of the political, economic, and social realities on the ground. The comparison between Albania and Bosnia and Herzegovina reminds us that fragility is not a single concept, but a combination of factors that affect each country in different ways.
Pse jeni kunder shqiprise mja shqipria nuk eshte e edi rames more kunguj apo jiu pagon greku me parate e gjermanit