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Trump's ambitions for Venezuela, Latin America and Greenland are challenging the international order and putting NATO in a fragile position. Italian analyst Stefano Stefanini warns that a "new Crimea" in the Arctic could spell the end of the Atlantic Alliance and change global balances...
As the “Donroe Doctrine” takes shape – Trump’s version of the Monroe Doctrine, which proclaims the right of the United States to “reestablish American supremacy in the Western Hemisphere” – we asked Stefano Stefanini, senior advisor at ISPI and analyst at the newspaper “La Stampa”, to help us bring some order to this chaos.
Is the operation against Maduro in Venezuela a turning point?
Yes! Because it marks the transition of American foreign policy from a globalist approach to continental hegemony. This change was announced in the National Security Strategy published a few days ago. With this intervention, Trump is putting it into practice. He aims for supremacy, not global leadership.
The event is also crucial because it shows the return to the criteria of pure economic and military power, above international legality, an approach that, in a more dramatic way, we saw from Russia with the invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
Two days after Venezuela, Trump threatened Colombia, talked about overthrowing the communist regime in Cuba, and reiterated that Greenland should come under U.S. control. How will this program develop?
Donald Trump's method is very clear: a mix of pressure and incentives, "carrots and sticks." Cuba is a special case, an old wound for the US since the 1960s. With a Secretary of State like Marco Rubio, the objective seems predictable: regime change in Havana.
When Cuba can no longer rely on Venezuelan aid, it will be left vulnerable. For the rest of Latin America - starting with Colombia - the goal is to have governments that accept American policy and keep Chinese influence at bay. Latin America is today a field of competition between the US and China: in the economy, for resources and political influence.
What about Greenland?
Trump has often said that Greenland is essential to US national security. He has not ruled out military action, although he sees it as a last resort. The aim is to convince Greenland's roughly 55,000 residents that it is better to become US citizens than to remain Danish, putting pressure on Denmark.
If the goal is simply to defend the island, Denmark can easily allow US bases. But if the goal is to control mineral resources, then the US must assume sovereignty or de facto control of Greenland.
This makes the “Crimea” scenario plausible: an unresisted invasion, similar to what Russia did to the Ukrainian peninsula.
Such an action would be an attack by one NATO country on another. Would it mark the end of the Atlantic Alliance?
NATO is not built to deal with internal aggression. In times of tension, such as between Greece and Turkey, it has acted as a peacemaker. But in the case of Greenland, it would be paralyzed. An American invasion would effectively spell the end of NATO.
What should Europe do?
Europe should support Danish sovereignty over Greenland, leaving open the possibility of self-determination for its inhabitants, but at the same time show a willingness to address American security concerns without a transfer of sovereignty.
What is the impact of the Donroe Doctrine on Ukraine and Taiwan?
It represents a major shift: for the US, interests in Latin America come before opposing Russia in Ukraine or China in Taiwan. Trump says it openly: Venezuela, Colombia, the Panama Canal and Greenland are more important than Europe and Asia.
But what about Iran?
Iran is engaging in the same logic: open warnings of intervention if the regime continues to suppress protests. It is an extension of the threat that existed for the nuclear programs.
Is this policy contrary to the "America First" promise?
In fact, it is a transformation. Trump had promised an end to long and useless wars. Now he aims for quick, demonstrative interventions, using military and technological superiority to achieve economic objectives. Democracy and human rights are not a priority. For Trump, what matters is control of resources and economic benefit for the US and consequently for his political and family circle. / Pamphlet adapted from "Huffington Post Italia"
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