FLASH
Shkruar nga Leonid Nevzlin
The influx of contract soldiers is not enough to compensate for losses on the battlefield. There are many signs that if he wants to continue his fight, in the autumn at the latest Putin will be faced with the need to carry out a new mobilization...
The Russian invasion seems to have stalled. Ukrainian forces managed to stop the new offensive of Putin's troops in the Kharkiv region. Likewise, the Russian army is also blocked in the Donetsk region. Even if there is any progress in any segment of the front, it is minimal.
Of course, it is likely that the Kremlin will adopt and implement some new strategy. In any case, its losses in material and people are great. Historically, the Russian military command has been accustomed to sparing no resources. However, Russian women are not giving birth to enough men, while factories are failing to produce and repair the requisite number of tanks and armored personnel carriers needed on the battlefield.
Meanwhile, the new ambassador of Ukraine in London, Valerii Zaluzhny, says that very soon neither Ukraine nor Russia will be able to get the technology that would be decisive in this war. "Under these conditions, the only solution can be to increase the number of troops engaged at the front" - proposes Zaluzhny.
Over 2 years since the start of the full-scale Russian invasion, there are few men left in Russia who are willing to go and willingly die in Ukraine for payment. In the Tatarstan region, the authorities are offering 100,000 rubles to anyone who manages to convince someone to sign a cooperation contract with the Ministry of Defense.
Likewise in the Yaroslav region. Almost all regions of the Russian Federation are luring men to go to war, promising all kinds of payments to those who sign the contracts. However, there is a constant shortage of troops. Therefore, wounded soldiers who have not fully recovered are forced to return to the front again.
But the influx of contract soldiers is not enough to compensate for losses on the battlefield. There are many signs that if he wants to continue his fight, in the autumn at the latest Putin will be faced with the need to carry out a new mobilization.
This is also because it is considering the possibility of a new major offensive against Kiev. And there are no political obstacles for such a move. He can refer to the decree signed in the first phase of the war in September 2022. If necessary, the Russian parliament, the Duma, fully subordinated, but also the Federation Council will approve anything.
Protests are unlikely: opponents are either afraid or have left. Only isolated dissidents without supporters speak publicly. However, the question arises, will Putin be able to afford a new mobilization from an economic point of view? Money is not the problem. Putin still has them. And if they are not enough, it will cut spending on health or education. However, the economy is the most vulnerable part of the Russian Federation. And a new mobilization could seriously hurt him, since the labor shortage is what is now seriously worrying Putin's economists.
According to data from the Bank of Russia, three quarters of companies in the country are facing this problem. Sending recruits to the war, migrating those who opposed him or who do not want to die for Putin (according to the calculations of the portal The Bell, after February 2022, at least 660,000 men have left Russia and never returned).
And this means that the shortage of workers in the Russian Federation is becoming critical. It can be offset by an increase in labor productivity, but this is hampered by technological lags. Cut off from world technologies due to sanctions, Russia will suffer further degradation.
Under these conditions, the regime is operating by the simple method of forcing current workers to work more hours per day. So they risk safety at work. And then the authorities will say that there was sabotage. For example, Aeroflot canceled more than 300 flights at the end of June, due to the absence of flight attendants who are working "beyond the limit of their abilities", as the Aviatorshchina portal wrote.
Another possibility is to bring in new workers from Africa. According to statistics from the consulting agency RBK, these workers come mainly from Kenya, Zimbabwe, Cameroon and Zambia. The shortage of workers has led to a huge increase in wages.
A consequence of this is the increase in consumer demand, but also the increase in prices due to the impossibility of fulfilling it. The Russians cannot make up for the lack of production by increasing imports due to sanctions. Or these goods are too expensive.
Banning imports is not a solution either. Because such a move leads to an increase in inflation, a situation that both Putin's economists and financial experts have not been able to successfully cope with for a long time.
The tightening of monetary policy, such as raising the prime rate, is the basic tool to fight inflation. But in Russia, this mechanism is no longer working. During 2023-2024, the Bank of Russia increased the interest rate 6 times, from 7.5 percent to 18 percent, which is currently.
But inflation has no intention of falling. On the contrary, the price of gasoline has increased further, which may cause the price of many other goods to rise. This means that Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian oil refineries have a huge impact and are very effective.
Although the Russian economy is still growing, this is happening at the expense of increased budget spending and large government contracts, i.e. in the service of Putin's war in Ukraine. For this reason, new sanctions are needed, which would prevent the use of a shadow fleet, which allows Moscow to continue making money from oil exports.
In any case, the Russians have practically exhausted all possibilities for the growth of their economy. As German Gref, one of Putin's financial experts, recently admitted, the level of utilization of its capacity reached 84 percent, which is a historical maximum.
And that means there is virtually no space, equipment or labor to spare.
So, in the fall Vladimir Putin will be forced to choose between war and mobilization or the economy. In a normal state, the decision would be clear. But in the case of Russia and Putin, the normal reasoning does not apply. The Russians are ready to destroy everything to kill the inhabitants of a neighboring country.
However, they must understand that the consequences will be catastrophic. The main tool we in the West can counter is sanctions. Regardless of what the Russian authorities say, the sanctions are working, and this is being felt more and more in Russia every day.
However, they are still not enough. Therefore, it is important to immediately impose new sanctions, which will make it more difficult for Vladimir Putin to carry out a mobilization and compensate for the losses in weapons and ammunition./Adapted Pamphlet from "Kyiv Post"
Note: Leonid Nevzlin, Russian-Israeli publisher and philanthropist.
Lini një Përgjigje