FLASH
Shkruar nga Ian Bremmer
The result is a growing fragmentation within the Western alliance, accompanied by fears in Europe that the White House may sooner or later enter into security agreements with Russia...
The US-Israeli war against Iran has not only destabilized the Middle East, sharply increased the prices of oil, gas and other commodities, and disrupted the global economy. It has also forced US allies and rivals to improvise a hasty response to an unpredictable and unreliable superpower, triggering a historic geopolitical realignment that will undermine the global balance of power for the next decade.
The consequences of the war are, of course, more immediate and devastating in the region where it is taking place. The conflict has led many Gulf Arab states to view the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), a highly dubious diplomatic, economic and defense arrangement that is always plagued by internal conflict, as ineffective and outdated. For the United Arab Emirates, which announced its withdrawal from OPEC on April 28 after nearly sixty years of membership, the war has exacerbated its rivalry with the Saudis. The Emirates have decided to move closer to Israel on matters of intelligence, technology and security, hoping to paralyze the regime in Tehran. Saudi Arabia, for its part, aims to strengthen military ties with a nuclear power like Pakistan, as well as with Egypt and Turkey, and to build new bridges with China.
Both blocs aim to maintain close security ties with the US, although we will soon see efforts to coordinate decision-making across the Middle East weaken.
Then there are the problematic relations with European allies. As Russia’s war against Ukraine continues to fuel anxiety and tensions across Europe, the Trump administration’s decision to focus the American superpower’s attention on the conflict with Iran, and to sharply criticize European leaders for their refusal to stand by it, has generated new momentum toward creating a common European defense outside of the U.S.-led NATO.
For now, it is highly unlikely that President Trump will withdraw from the Atlantic alliance. But the announcement on May 1 that the United States will repatriate 5,000 of the 36,000 American troops stationed in Germany has raised alarm levels across the continent. Trump has also ignored European objections to the idea of partially lifting sanctions against Russia. The result is a growing fragmentation within the Western alliance, accompanied by fears in Europe that the White House may sooner or later enter into security agreements with Russia.
In Asia, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz is causing serious economic damage to U.S. allies. Like America’s historic partners in Europe, these countries are also facing uncertainty about the long-term economic and defense commitments made by the Trump administration. They are also subject to pressure from China’s economic, technological, and military power.
For his part, Xi Jinping is likely to use Trump’s upcoming visit to Beijing to push him to solidify his peacemaking credentials by explicitly giving up on Taiwan’s independence. In return, he could secure China’s strong commitment to revitalizing the American economy, with massive purchases of American-made materials.
But there is another important turning point regarding China, caused by the American war in the Middle East. Iranian leaders and the entire world have realized how easy and cheap it is to close that strategic artery called the Strait of Hormuz.
The war has raised alarm bells for other critical points, such as the Bab al-Mandab Strait, which separates Yemen from the African coast, and even the Strait of Malacca in Southeast Asia. China is now a world leader in sustainable energy, electric cars and batteries, as well as minerals and the industrial processes for processing them. The historic shift towards renewable energy has made Beijing a much more attractive trading partner for major global importers of the sector. We are all looking for new energy supplies, and this translates into a short-term advantage for the United States, the world’s largest hydrocarbon producer, and for the US dollar. But the continued uncertainty and vulnerability in oil and gas supplies, highlighted by the conflict in the Middle East, creates major long-term opportunities for China.
In all these respects, the turmoil in the Middle East will be a lever that will serve to disrupt international alliances and reorient the global balance of power, more than any other conflict since the end of the Cold War. / Adapted from "Pamphlet" by "Corriere della Sera"
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