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The states of the Western Balkans will not be told concrete dates for membership. But Brussels wants to use at least economic aid to prevent the Balkans from being swayed by China and Russia.
"It seems to be a feeling more or less like that of children on Christmas Eve looking forward to their presents," says a senior EU official in the run-up to the EU's top-level meeting with the six countries. Western Balkans that aspire to membership. The potential beautifully packaged gifts will be shown today (13.12.2023) in Brussels to EU heads of state and government from Albania, Serbia, Montenegro, Bosnia-Herzegovina, North Macedonia and Kosovo. But in fact, who will receive what specifically will be decided on Thursday (14.12.2023) at the summit of 27 EU members without the presence of the Balkan countries.
Concrete dates for the membership of Albania, Serbia, Montenegro or North Macedonia will not be mentioned. With these four countries, the EU Commission is negotiating for the adaptation of legislation, state-building and governance practices according to EU norms. The President of the Council of the EU, Charles Michel, in a speech in Bled, Slovenia, expressed a deadline for membership in 2030. But the EU has never officially included this deadline in the statements of its summits. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has asked for the increase in speed for the enlargement process, but he has not expressed himself concretely either.
More momentum for expansion?
In Brussels, they are of the same opinion that the discussion on the admission of the six Balkan states took off only when Russia attacked Ukraine. As a result, the aspect of security policy and geostrategy has been placed more in focus in the debate on enlargement. "There is a new energy," said an EU official. After the Russian attack on Ukraine, membership talks were opened with Albania and North Macedonia, Bosnia and Herzegovina was designated as a candidate country. But it is unclear how accession talks can begin with this dysfunctional state construct, where Bosnian Serbs loyal to Russia are running riot. Even 28 years after the civil wars in Yugoslavia, Bosnia-Herzegovina is under international administration.
Old conflicts must be resolved first
Kosovo, which seceded as a state from Serbia, is still not recognized by Serbia or by some EU member states, which complicates the official steps towards membership talks with the EU. Even before this summit (13.12.2023), the EU has asked the Balkan countries to resolve bilateral conflicts in the region, in order to advance in the process towards the EU. The Prime Minister of Serbia, Ana Brnabić, and the President of Kosovo, Vjosa Osmani, will participate in the summit in Brussels. No one expects a real rapprochement between the parties in this conflict, Belgrade and Pristina, which escalated this year, as far as the autonomy of territories with Serbian population in Kosovo is concerned.
NATO had to reinforce troops in Kosovo to keep the situation between the parties under control. The EU-Western Balkans summit, according to a draft final statement, is expected to ask both sides to finally implement the agreement on the normalization of relations decided long ago. The EU Commissioner for Foreign Policy, Josep Borrell, will continue mediation efforts between Serbia and Kosovo. Without agreement, neither Serbia nor Kosovo's membership in the EU is foreseen.
Based on the progress reports of the EU published in November, the six countries of the Balkans are making more or less rapid steps to improve the rule of law, for good governance and to better fight corruption, but real successes on these detected deficits there was none during this year. The chapters of negotiations have indeed been opened, but they could not be concluded. In the meantime, an inventory of the processes has been made with Albania, so that concrete talks can start quickly. But these are currently being hindered by Greece, which is debating the issue of the post of mayor in Himara. Progress in membership talks can only advance through unanimous decisions. Any EU member state can veto, which blocks the talks.
Despite the difficulties, the EU has established before the summit some things that are working. In the Albanian capital, in Tirana, a branch of the European University of Bruges has been established. 500 students study in it. The EU Commission and EU member states want to make available now more scholarships for this European College. The cooperation of universities in the EU with higher schools in the Balkan region should be expanded./DW
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