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Shkruar nga Pamfleti
With attacks on the Russian oil industry, Ukraine is showing that it can effectively defend itself. A new missile could soon cause big problems for Moscow.
It was one of Vladimir Putin's least publicized appearances during his four-day trip to China. However, the Russian dictator's exchange with Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico in Beijing revealed more about his state of mind than all the carefully staged images put together.
Putin, who has recently shown renewed confidence, seemed shaken. He spent a long time complaining to his EU ally Fico about Ukrainian attacks on Russian energy infrastructure. Putin indirectly emphasized that the attacks would also hurt Slovakia, which imports oil from Russia through a pipeline. He also urged Slovakia to completely stop exporting gas and electricity to Ukraine.
On the world stage, as recent days have shown, Putin may not feel much pressure right now. But what worries him are the precise attacks that the Ukrainian military has been able to carry out in recent weeks, particularly against Russia's oil industry.
Balance of threats
Since early August, Ukrainian drones have damaged at least eight major refineries in western Russia. They were forced to shut down or reduce production. Twice, drones hit a key pumping station on the Druzhba pipeline, which carries oil to Slovakia and Hungary. Both times, the flow of oil stopped for several days. An export terminal in Ust-Luga near St. Petersburg was also hit, significantly reducing the amount of crude oil exported in late August. Meanwhile, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has promised further strikes “deep into Russia.”
While Europe is still debating security guarantees and a possible peacekeeping force, Ukraine has proven in recent weeks how resilient it is. These new attacks followed months of relative calm, with both sides avoiding each other’s energy infrastructure. That unwritten truce ended in June when Russian missiles hit Ukraine’s largest refinery in Kremenchuk. The result was an escalation that turned into regular waves of attacks by August.
Ukraine is pursuing several objectives with the latest attacks, explains military analyst Mykola Bielieskov, a researcher at the National Institute for Strategic Studies in Kiev. First, they reduce Russia's revenues from its oil and gas business.
Militarily, the attacks pose a dilemma for Russia's top leaders. To protect civilian infrastructure, they will have to pull air defenses away from military sites. "Moreover, Ukraine is creating what is known as a balance of threat, a credible source of pressure to reach some form of non-aggression agreement and thereby secure at least its critical infrastructure," Bielieskov said.
The German way
These attacks have been possible because Ukraine, like Russia, has invested in the mass production of its own drones.
The Ukrainian military relies primarily on two models in most of its operations.
The first is the Antonov-196 single-purpose aircraft, which has been in serial production since 2024. This rocket, about 4.5 meters long, can carry a 50-kilogram warhead over 1,000 kilometers. The An-196 is powered by a compact engine from the German mid-sized firm Hirth. According to Der Spiegel, a sum of "three million" in German aid has reportedly been spent on the production of the An-196. Despite repeated Russian attacks on the suspected production site, the Antonov factory based in Kiev, production continues.
The second model is the FP-1, a long-range drone with a range of up to 1,600 kilometers and a warhead capable of carrying up to 60 kilograms of explosives. Its lightweight body, partly constructed from plywood, is powered by an engine originally designed for large model aircraft. This keeps costs low and makes mass production easier.
Flamingo Rocket
As painful as these Ukrainian attacks are, the drones alone have not yet caused any lasting damage to oil refineries. While facilities accounting for 13 to 17 percent of Russia’s refining capacity have been hit, some are expected to resume operations soon. Meanwhile, the Russian government has suspended gasoline exports for two months. On average, Russia produces about 20 percent more gasoline than it consumes. Its oil surplus exceeds 50 percent. For now, there is no talk of a supply crisis.
But to really hit Russia’s economy harder, Ukraine would need not drones but larger missiles. One candidate is the newly developed Flamingo FP-5, unveiled to international journalists just last week. According to Ukrainian manufacturer Fire Point, the missile can fly up to 3,000 kilometers and uses old Soviet bombs with 1,000 kilograms of explosives as its warhead. It is powered by a jet engine from the Ukrainian firm Motor Sich, last used in training aircraft and in serial production since the late 1960s.
There has not yet been a confirmed combat use of the new Flamingo. Its accuracy and striking power need to be proven.
At the same time, experts from the Conflict Intelligence Team in Washington, DC, point out that the heavy Flamingo missile, unlike smaller drones, is easier to spot on radar.
Darkness on the Dnipro
Meanwhile, concerns are growing in Ukraine that Russia could further escalate its attacks on power plants and power plants. Ukrainian military officials are now reporting more reconnaissance flights by Russian drones over energy centers. In recent weeks, Russian missiles have repeatedly hit gas-fired power plants in the Poltava region, as well as an oil terminal on the Danube. In the industrial city of Dnipro, several districts were without electricity for days after a Russian attack on August 30.
In previous waves of attacks, Ukraine's energy system has proven more resilient than many Ukrainian and Western experts expected. This is largely because, according to the Energy Ministry, more than 60 percent of the country's electricity comes from its three remaining nuclear power plants. Ukraine also relies on imports from Hungary, Poland and Slovakia. / Adapted from "Pamphlet", from "World Crunch"
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