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The current president of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, remains the frontrunner for a second term at the top of the EU executive, but not someone who can claim to be in office for the next five years.
This means, according to Politico, that Brussels is playing a new exciting game (mostly politicians, diplomats and officials who are critical of the head of the Commission) who can take the seat, if not Von der Leyen?
Politico profiles politicians who present themselves as real alternatives or as a way to pressure Von der Leyen to extract concessions from her.
Mario Draghi,
76, led Italy's broad coalition until it collapsed in 2022 and his name often comes up when international leadership roles are vacant. The former Italian Prime Minister and President of the European Central Bank has so far been mainly associated with the position of President of the European Council (when Charles Michel leaves).
Draghi has already returned to EU politics, working on an official plan for Brussels to make the bloc more competitive, which he will deliver shortly after EU elections, when European leaders will haggle over top jobs. of the block. Moreover, he is close to French President Emmanuel Macron.
Argument against, the Italian does not have a clear political affiliation and it is difficult to understand why the EPP would hand over the powerful post of Commission President to someone with no clear political allegiance.
Roberta Metsola
As stated above, it is unlikely that the PPE will give up the leadership of the Commission in the next mandate. However, if von der Leyen does not get the support she needs, another first female EPP candidate could emerge.
European Parliament President Metsola has managed to stay above political fray, a tactic that previously helped her secure her current post.
At the same time, she has shown leadership in foreign policy and was the first EU leader to visit Kiev after the Russian invasion in February 2022. Originally from Malta, Metsola could be a win for southern Europe when the posts are divided main.
In an Instagram post last week, Metsola was seen hanging out with Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis and Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk - a hint that, despite the job, she has support in high places.
Argument against, Malta is the smallest country in the EU, both in terms of size and population. Neither Metsola has executive experience, not even in his country. Her conservative record on abortion was used against her early in her presidency of the EU legislature.
Christine Lagarde
Macron's reluctance to back von der Leyen for the top job raises an obvious question: after five years of German rule and an even longer period when Germans or Austrians held the key post of chief of staff to the Commission president, does Macron wants a French to lead the Commission?
As a former finance minister and current president of the European Central Bank, Lagarde would tick the box of senior executive experience and has the added advantage of being a woman.
Argument against, because she is French. (Also: She is not very popular with her staff.)
There is no indication that Lagarde would be willing to leave the ECB before the end of her eight-year term, or even that the Elysée Palace is seriously considering deciding her name in front. Since her departure from the IMF, Lagarde's name has come up during almost every French government reshuffle as a possible minister.
Klaus Johannis
Why? The Romanian president is seen as a steady hand and is a favorite of European leaders, especially among conservatives. Both Macron and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz praised him for keeping his country in the pro-Western and pro-European camp after the Russian invasion of Ukraine – which could not be said for Hungary, Slovakia or Bulgaria.
Unlike Poland, Romania also strictly followed EU single market rules and did not impose unilateral restrictions on Ukrainian wheat - strengthening Iohannis' reputation as a pro-European team player.
Many argue that it is time for an Eastern European to lead the EU. If so, the German-speaking Johannes is in a good position, coming from the same EPP political family as von der Leyen. The EPP's decision to hold its electoral congress in Bucharest also testifies to its position among the group's conservative leaders.
Me përfundimin e mandatit të tij të dytë në dhjetor, Iohannis është në kërkim të një pune të lartë ndërkombëtare. Muajin e kaluar ai ra dakord të kandidojë si udhëheqësi i ardhshëm i NATO-s - por do të jetë një betejë e vështirë, duke pasur parasysh mbështetjen e gjerë për kryeministrin holandez Mark Rutte.
Argument kundër - Përpjekja e minutës së fundit e Iohannis për të hequr rolin e udhëheqësit të NATO-s nga Rutte i mërziti disa vende të Evropës Perëndimore.
Andrej Plenkoviq
Kryeministri kroat Andrej Plenkoviç vjen gjithashtu nga PPE, dhe si me Johannis, emërimi i tij do të ishte në përgjigje të thirrjeve në rritje për Evropën Lindore për të marrë postin e lartë.
Përzgjedhja e një kroati si president i Komisionit do të dërgonte gjithashtu një sinjal pozitiv për anëtarët e ardhshëm të BE-së (Kroacia është anëtarja e fundit e BE-së).
Njoftimi i befasishëm i Plenkoviqit se ai do të kryesojë listën e kandidatëve të partisë në pushtet HDZ të Kroacisë ngre dyshime se ai dëshiron të largohet nga politika e brendshme.
Përvoja e tij si Kryeministër që nga viti 2016 i ka dhënë sigurisht autoritet dhe mundësi për t'u lidhur me liderët e tjerë evropianë.
Argument kundër, Plenković hodhi poshtë zërat se ai mund të zëvendësojë Von der Leyen, që natyrisht mund të konsiderohet një tregues i mirë se ai është i interesuar për këtë punë.
Thierry Breton
Është franceze. Breton i tha Politico-s vitin e kaluar se ai ishte një kandidat i "Planit B" për t'u bërë komisioner evropian që në vitin 2019. Ai la të kuptohet fuqimisht se është i hapur të bëhet sërish Plani B nëse oferta e von der Leyen dështon.
Si ish-ministër francez i financave, Breton ka përvojë në poste të larta, dhe megjithëse jo nga PPE, ai është konservator. Përvoja e tij si ish-shef ekzekutiv, i cili e vuri përsëri politikën industriale në axhendën e Komisionit, e lejon atë të argumentojë se ai duhet të drejtojë një ekzekutiv të BE-së që do të jetë shumë më i fokusuar në konkurrencë.
Breton doli gjithashtu si kritiku i profilit më të lartë të von der Leyen në flluskën e Brukselit. Në një postim famëkeq në Twitter pas emërimit të saj si kandidatja kryesore e EPP-së, Breton vuri në dukje se shefi i Komisionit nuk kishte saktësisht mbështetje unanime brenda EPP-së për një mandat të dytë.
He was also part of a group of commissioners who criticized her choice of Marcus Piper as Commissioner for Small and Medium Enterprises. And while a senior French official told Politico that Macron was "furious" about von der Leyen's tweet, other French officials have since said the president wasn't all that upset after all.
Argument against - Breton may have more enemies than friends in the EU's highest circles, including within the Commission and among many EU countries, with many questioning his track record.
His frenetic self-promotion annoyed fellow commissioners - chief among them competition chief Margrethe Vestager, but also many of the staff and civil servants he had to work with.
Surprise
Why? The protracted horse-trading between political groupings over Europe's top posts after the EU elections is always full of surprises. In 2019, no one would bet on Von der Leyen becoming President of the Commission; Brussels may be surprised by a candidate they have never heard of or met before.
Why not? We have no idea who it might be (otherwise it wouldn't be a surprise)
A scathing (and anonymous!) article in the French publication Atlantico described Breton as "the worst French commissioner in 30 years", suggesting that he has rivals determined to undermine it.
Furthermore, he is not EPP, and the controversy surrounding his time at the helm of French technology firm Atos is seen as a major liability for any potential confirmation by the European Parliament. /Politico
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