FLASH
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If it happens inside Israel with many casualties, there is a risk of rapid escalation.
"I'm not 100% convinced it will happen now, but if it does, I think the Iranians won't do something that leads to escalation and a wider war." says academician Vali Nasr, born in Tehran, professor at John Hopkins University and former adviser to the US State Department.
"The pressure is now on America and Israel to ensure that this does not become a wider war. Unless an Iranian attack causes a lot of death inside Israel, to a level that Israel feels it has to respond to, I don't think there will be an escalation."
Why now?
"First of all, the surprise factor is missing: I think they might prefer a moment when Israel is not expecting it. Second: they don't want to give Netanyahu the excuse to shift the conversation from Gaza to Iran, they don't want to help him rebuild relations with the Biden administration or take the pressure off the streets. A larger war would help to do all of this. But on the other hand, the Iranians feel the need to demonstrate that they do not turn the other cheek and send a message of deterrence to Israel not to carry out other attacks like this (against the Iranian embassy in Damascus)."
In the event of an attack, do you expect anything in Israel or in the region?
"If it happens inside Israel with many casualties, there is a risk of rapid escalation. The danger is also the Israeli response Now everyone blames Iran, but Israel started it and has an answer. Then the ball goes back to Israel: how will it respond?”
What does this mean for Biden?
"It already has Ukraine, Gaza, China. A new war in the Middle East that we don't know when it will end would absolutely not be a good thing."
There is an intense round of diplomatic calls to Iran at these hours from Europeans, neighboring countries and even China.
"I am sure that they are offering Iran a number of things and this is already a victory for Iran. The whole world is basically asking Iran not to retaliate, but I think behind the scenes they are putting pressure on Israel as well. I don't think the Americans are happy with the attack on Damascus: the Israelis did not consult them, Netanyahu created a new crisis for the Biden administration. I think the talks consist not only of telling Iran not to retaliate or whether to retaliate to a certain level, but for the Americans to tell Israel to accept retaliation up to a certain level."
At what level?
"It has not been made public. It's like when Iran responded to the killing of General Qassem Soleimani by launching 100 missiles against a US base in Iraq: luckily no Americans were killed and Trump left it alone."
What will Iran demand in return?
“I think there's a bargaining chip, messages back and forth. Iran will demand guarantees that Israel will not strike embassies again. The Iranians know that America does not want a war in the Middle East, and its threat is tantamount to saying: if you don't want a war, you can't just put pressure on us, you have to put pressure on Israel as well. I also think that Iran believes that it must do something: the negotiations are about which attack and the pressure on Israel not to react". / Corriere della Sera
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