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Putin is supporting the narrative he imposed on Russia himself. But the anti-migrant wave after the Crocus massacre is a danger to domestic stability. "In the chess game of power, the Kremlin has now chosen a Sicilian defense".
Abbas Gallyamov uses this chess image to define a difficult situation to which one reacts aggressively knowing well the characteristics of the opponents.
Vladimir Putin's speechwriter when he was young, and with whom he spent many hours challenging himself with bishops, queens and castles, is today one of the sharpest dissidents of his former employer and lives in Israel.
"The president is aware of the Western sensitivity to any hint of nuclear aggression or expansion of the conflict in NATO countries. So he uses your fear to please an increasingly Putinized society, an audience trained for years to tell them there is evil beyond our borders and to hide the problems that emerged with the Crocus attack."
Media strategy
Not even in the days of the march on Moscow attempted by Yevgeny Prigozhin, the media were seen like turtles, without any distinction. All united in pressing a single button, making every other dilemma raised by the massacre of last March 22 disappear from the horizon.
"Let's also admit that the escape of terrorists towards the Ukrainian border was not an attempt to reunite with the perpetrators and instigators of the crime, but a simple consequence of poor geographical knowledge. And isn't the killing of Darya Dugina a terrorist act? What about the bombing of Vladlen Tatarsky? What about the bombing of Belgorod without any military sense?"
So writes Mikhail Rostovskij, a columnist for Moskovskij Komsomolets, an ultra-government daily aimed at Moscow's middle class.
"We need another enemy"
They are words that do not differ at all from those uttered every evening by the presenters-propagandists on their talk shows, conceived on the contrary for the wide audience of deep Russia. This uniform chorus cannot only be the result of the emotional wave after that massacre. Even without giving credence to the information reported by independent sites, according to which all Russian media have received instructions from the Kremlin administration to highlight the "possible Ukrainian bullet" and "connections with the West", it seems clear that it is not a spontaneous movement. "When you have such a well-defined enemy, you don't need another," comments Gallyamov.
From Tajikistan to F-16
With his statements in recent days, Putin is supporting the narrative he had imposed at home. The hint that NATO and F-16s will be hit wherever they are is the reflection of an internal communication strategy, which was probably chosen to cover and soften the wave of xenophobia that has arisen almost everywhere in Russia after the Crocus attack. On the one hand, Tajikistan, the Central Asian country most permeable to jihadist infiltration. On the other hand, Putin's Russia, which after almost a million deaths from Covid in the two-year period 2020-2021, has opened the door even further to the work of Tajiks. In 2023 alone, one and a half million citizens of that country flocked to Russian cities in search of work.
Media strategy
It has been this way for decades. First the collapse of the Soviet Union, then the civil war that lasted from 1992 to 1997 pushed millions of Tajiks north. When the borders reopened after the pandemic, the current Russian government stated that it needed at least 2-3 million migrant workers. Those who today are the object of vandalist raids, and of a vague persecution that is also gaining institutional support. The Duma calls for the restriction of their rights, the oligarch Konstantin Malofeev announced that he has created a foundation that aims to promote anti-immigrant bills. Sergei Mironov, the head of Just Russia, a party to the right of Putin, has once again proposed the abolition of the visa-free movement regime with Central Asian countries. In a country with more than two hundred ethnic groups, a possible crackdown on immigration is a Pandora's box from which regional protests and revolts can emerge, the further away from the Kremlin, the harder it is to control. Better to stick to the usual suspects. / Corriere della Sera
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