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In the absence of Pentagon data (and while polls show widespread opposition to American intervention in Iran), we have to make do with various assessments which, however, agree on one thing: the conflict is very costly.
Recent polls show that a significant portion of American public opinion opposes attacks on Iran, especially if the military operation turns into a protracted conflict. Skepticism comes not only from pacifist circles, but also from many voters sympathetic to Donald Trump, who express doubts about the White House's military intervention.
One of the main reasons for this hesitation is related to the economic costs of the conflict. So far, the US administration has not asked Congress to approve additional funding for the Pentagon, but estimates show that the costs of the war could be very high.
The chairman of the House Budget Committee, Oklahoma Republican Tom Cole, quoted by Politico, described the cost of the conflict with a curt answer: “A lot.” A more concrete estimate suggests that the war could cost the US about a billion dollars a day.
By comparison, Operation Midnight Hammer, the brief June 22 offensive during which the US bombed several Iranian nuclear facilities, cost about $2 billion.
In the absence of official data from the Pentagon, the analysis is based mainly on estimates from organizations and research institutes. A calculation published by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in Washington estimates that the first 100 hours of the conflict cost the US about $3.7 billion.
According to this analysis, about $196 million was spent on military operations ($125 million for air operations, $64 million for naval operations, and $7 million for ground operations). The largest expenditure was related to ammunition, which amounted to $3.1 billion, while $359 million was used to replace destroyed equipment and repair damage to infrastructure.
Just three F-15 fighter jets, shot down by "friendly fire" in Kuwait, have a combined value of nearly $300 million.
Another estimate, cited by The New York Times, suggests that the first week of attacks may have cost as much as $6 billion, while some Republican lawmakers interviewed by Politico put the figure even higher, as high as $2 billion a day. A similar figure was cited by Kent Smetters, director of the Penn Wharton Budget Analysis Model at the University of Pennsylvania, quoted by Al Jazeera.
However, analysts agree on one important aspect of the conflict: one of the biggest costs is related to defense against Iranian missiles and drones. These weapons are often produced at relatively low cost, while the systems to intercept them are much more expensive.
According to an estimate by former CIA official Jonny Gannon, for every $1 Iran spends on missiles and drones, the Gulf Arab monarchies spend about $28 to neutralize them.
For this reason, the final cost of the conflict will depend heavily on one key factor: how large the Iranian arsenal still is. On this issue, estimates remain varied and difficult to verify independently. / Corriere Della Sera
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