FLASH
Shkruar nga PamfletiIn the worst-case scenario, the country's nuclear program could shift even deeper into secrecy and efforts to develop nuclear weapons as a means of deterrence accelerate.
The military attack by the United States and Israel against Iran opens a new and extremely uncertain period for the wider Middle East region.
The attack targeted the main pillars of the Islamic Republic's power, such as its nuclear and missile programs, as well as the Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), while at the same time bringing back to the forefront the possibility of profound political developments within the country. At the same time, the discussion about the possibility of regime change in Iran has intensified, with the American side presenting the developments as a potential opportunity for the Iranian people to challenge the authority of the theocratic leadership that has ruled the country for nearly five decades. 4 scenarios for the future of Iran.
The Guardian, in its respective analysis, presents four main scenarios for the next day in the country. These scenarios are not ranked according to their likelihood of occurrence, but according to the level of stability they could bring.
A rapid political transition
The first scenario is considered more desirable by the United States and Israel. In this case, the Iranian armed forces and the Revolutionary Guard Corps would abandon the resistance, while the various opposition groups would agree to the creation of a transitional government. This government could be formed under the leadership of the former exiled Prince Reza Pahlavi, son of the last Shah of Iran. As part of the transition, elections would be prepared, and the new regime would hand over the country's remaining nuclear program, including centrifuges and highly enriched uranium stocks, to the United States.
At the same time, it would abandon its long-range missile programs and open Iran's energy market to American companies.
Despite the fact that this is the most "peaceful" scenario, analysts consider it the least likely, as history shows that the fall of authoritarian regimes rarely leads directly to a democratic transition.
"The Maduro Model"
A second scenario envisions the regime remaining in power, but with a change of leadership and significant concessions to the United States, as in Venezuela. A new, perhaps more moderate, leader could replace the existing leadership and begin negotiations with Washington.
According to the analysis, Iran could agree to abandon its nuclear program and impose strict restrictions on its missiles, while awarding significant energy contracts to American companies.
In exchange, the regime would maintain its power within the country and continue to control the political situation.
The regime resists pressure
In a third scenario, the existing regime could withstand military pressure and remain in power. The surviving leadership would continue to launch missile and drone attacks, while a new hardline religious leader could take power.
In the worst-case scenario, the country's nuclear program could shift even deeper into secrecy and efforts to develop nuclear weapons as a means of deterrence accelerate.
In such a development, Iran could develop into a highly isolated and militarized state.
Civil war and general chaos
The fourth and most dangerous scenario involves the complete destabilization of the country. Prolonged bombing could seriously weaken the regime, leading to defections within the security forces and mass demonstrations on the streets of major cities. At the same time, ethnic and separatist groups could exploit the power vacuum, especially in areas where minorities such as Kurds and Baluchis are active. Instability could spread to many regions of the country, as various opposition political forces would claim power. In such an environment, even Iran’s highly enriched uranium reserves could become the object of conflict between warring groups.
Izraeli, duke mashtruar Trumpin, e bëri Iranin një vend bërthamor. Së shpejti ata mund të testojnë produktet e para unike dhe t'i kërkojnë Trumpit të blejë "Nuklear Made in Iran". Vende të tjera në rajon do të kenë gjithashtu mundësinë ta bëjnë këtë. Faleminderit Izrael.
Nga te gjitha keto vetem e fundit eshte obsioni fashist Amerikan. Mbani mend 1997 ne Shqiperi cfare ndodhi e inskenimi iu ngarkua vete Shqiptareve kur zullumin e bene nipat e Uncle Sam.
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