FLASH
Shkruar nga Simon Kuper
The new world order may not last long. It is not built on long-term institutions, and the three rulers who have changed the behavior of the US, China and Russia are all in their seventies. When this order does end, it risks exploding with a bang...
There are moments when a new world order comes. This happened after the European wars ended in 1648, 1815 and 1945, and after the USSR collapsed in 1991. Donald Trump’s incitement to war last week over Greenland made it clear that we are living through a version of this again.
“The old order will not return ,” said Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney in his epoch-making speech at Davos. Any politician who still refers to the “international community” or calls the US an “ally” is either a liar or hasn’t been paying attention.
But what are the rules of the new order? Amidst the daily barrage of absurd events, it can be difficult to perceive any structure.
The first rule is that there are no more rules. The new order is like the Ultimate Fighting Championship for states. They can do whatever they want: invade other states, commit war crimes or genocide, acquire nuclear weapons. (In fact, businesses apparently can do this too, now that the US allows nuclear power companies access to weapons-grade plutonium.) AI is being developed without regulations, because after all, what could go wrong?
Rule two: international organizations have turned into zombies.
Carney said the World Trade Organization, the UN and the COP were “under threat”, which is putting it mildly. But he could have added NATO, the International Criminal Court and any other body that aspires to tell countries what to do. No one can enforce international law. Oddly enough, the only multilateral organization that is getting stronger is the one whose decline was always predicted: the EU.
The new world order is dominated by three great powers and a hyperactive troll, Russia, the US and China, usually operating alone without allies, now that the Americans have burned most of theirs. The third power is the last meaningful multinational alliance: a “Little West” made up of Europe, including Brexit Britain but without Hungary, plus Canada.
The Little West is a grassroots but surprisingly strong bloc, terrified of cooperation from outside threats. Even the potential new leader of the far right in France, Jordan Bardella, is becoming European, saying during the Greenland scare: " Faced with Trump's blackmail, we either react with the necessary determination, or we disappear behind the logic of empire . "
Almost all other countries on earth are non-aligned, hoping to play off each other with the great powers.
The Little West has a kind of ideology, perhaps shared by a small majority of its citizens: democracy, individual freedoms, and nostalgia for the old order. The other powers have no belief system beyond an aggressive, all-encompassing nationalism. The Chinese Communist Party is not communist, and Russian and American action moves according to the personal whims of Vladimir Putin and Trump. No interest group within either country’s elite wanted to invade Ukraine, annex Greenland, or take Venezuela’s oil until the leader put the idea into their head.
This eccentricity feeds another characteristic of the new order: total unpredictability. Anything can happen. Anyone can be invaded next, not just Taiwan. Partly because states now attack each other with impunity, decades-old regimes can suddenly collapse: Bashar al-Assad in Syria and perhaps the theocracy of Iran.
In the new order, the biggest problem is ignored: climate change. Leaders and people have quietly decided not to solve it through international agreements or personal sacrifice, although there is still a small chance that it can be solved by cheap Chinese technology.
Globalization survives in the new order, even if hardly anyone talks about it. The globalization of goods, measured by trade as a percentage of GDP, has stagnated at record levels. But the globalization of people continues: there is record migration, record air travel, the relentless spread of the first global language since the Tower of Babel, and a globalization of minds, fueled by social media. People everywhere are obsessed with Trump, Taylor Swift, and Manchester United.
This brings us to the inhabitants of the new world. They are increasingly living alone, unmarried, childless, and on screens. They are ceasing to read and are beginning to delegate their thinking to artificial intelligence. With few traditional institutions left to shape their minds, they are gathering their beliefs online.
The new world order may not last long. It is not built on long-term institutions, and the three rulers who have changed the behavior of the US, China and Russia are all in their seventies. When this order ends, there is a risk that it will go out with a bang. / Adapted from "Pamphlet" by "FinancialTimes"
*Note: Editorial title
Bota ne duart e 80 vjeçareve dhe 74 vjeçareve ne fakt.