FLASH
Shkruar nga Michael Martens
The US hopes that Christian Schmidt's resignation will give them more influence in the Balkans. But they are overthrowing a powerless man.
The US-imposed resignation of Christian Schmidt as the international community's High Representative in Bosnia and Herzegovina is more than just a personnel change in a small country on the fringes of European attention. It shows that Europeans and Americans are no longer partners in the Balkans, but geopolitical rivals.
Milorad Dodik, the most powerful Bosnian Serb politician and Vladimir Putin's most loyal ally in Europe, has cleverly exploited this new rivalry. After founding a party in 1996, he initially enjoyed the open support of the EU and the US, especially former US Secretary of State Madeleine Albright. What sounds incredible today, seemed logical at the time: Dodik had positioned himself against the networks of war criminal Radovan Karadzic, presented himself as pro-Western, and openly called the Srebrenica massacre of Muslims a genocide.
That period is long gone. Today, Dodik is the leading figure of separatism in Bosnia. He constantly threatens to separate his “entity,” the Republika Srpska, from the rest of the country. This situation has been going on for about twenty years. The difference from the past is that he now acts with tacit American tolerance, if not direct US support. From the perspective of the current leaders in Washington, this is logical, since they no longer see the EU as a partner, but as a competitor. In the Balkans, according to this interpretation, the US is hitting Bosnia with the conviction that the Europeans are too weak and divided to oppose him.
If this were to happen, the Balkans could once again face danger. One-fifth of the population of Republika Srpska is not Serb. The largest minority is made up of Bosnian Muslims, who constitute the absolute majority in Bosnia and Herzegovina. They would not remain passive if Dodik tried to destroy their state. In the event of an escalation of violence, Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić would be under pressure to help his “Serb brothers in Bosnia.”
However, this scenario is not inevitable. But if the US were to place a staunch successor to Schmidt in this position, the path to such an escalation would no longer be blocked. On the other hand, it would be an illusion to believe that the post of High Representative itself, regardless of who holds it, could prevent a bloody crisis in Bosnia.
The Powerlessness of the High Representative
The High Representatives in Bosnia have not only been powerless since 2021, when Schmidt took office. They have broad powers on paper: they can approve or repeal laws and dismiss elected politicians. But they lack the power to actually implement their decrees. They remain isolated in the “paper cage” of Sarajevo. The fact that Dodik continues to be the most powerful Bosnian Serb politician, even though the Supreme Court dismissed him after the conflict with Schmidt and the failure to implement his decrees, is a significant example.
If Bosnia were to be engulfed in violence again, the High Representative could perhaps only publish a protest statement online; beyond that, he would be powerless. Meanwhile, even in the absence of violence, this institution has for years been considered counterproductive, because it allows local politicians to hide behind the High Representative when making unpopular decisions.
As one former holder of the post has put it, the office of High Representative has been “a dead horse being ridden” for two decades. To claim that it is vital to Bosnia’s survival is to misunderstand the real balance of power. It would be equally naive to believe that an American candidate for the post would work in the interests of a multiethnic Bosnian state.
However, Europeans can still exert influence: by unitedly opposing the appointment of a successor to Schmidt and by supporting the closure of this institution after the Bosnian elections in the fall. From this perspective, no one would notice its absence.
Open issues, such as the division of state property between different administrative levels, could be included as conditions in the chapters of the EU accession negotiations. But this requires that the negotiations regain lost credibility. The current talks, without a clear deadline for completion, do not have this credibility. It is precisely in this vacuum of influence that hostile powers are penetrating the “Balkan courtyard” of Europe, Russia, China and now the USA./ Adapted from "Pamphlet" by "Faz.net"
Atomic Clock..." And the wnd of the World as we know it ".....DON'T GET ME WRONG!!!!! Po ju perseri gabuat ne interpretim. Alarmi i ores fillon kur nga 1/100 e sec. kalon ne 1/10, e keshtu me rradhe. Perseri gabuat kur u shpreha qe paraja nuk ju ben te lumtur por vetem ju ndihmon! Shqiperia nga 2010 u planifikua si nje shesh eksperimentesh dhe kaloi ne nje cmenduri dhe psikopati kombetare si shoshe eksperimentesh. Nje psikopati qe filloi me shkaterrime ne jete familjare, sociale, politike ekonomike.. Deshironi qe kete psikopati qe filloi me " walking dead " te amc, telekom, one, e te gjithe teknologjive dixhitale dhe te inovacionit te bankave tuaja, une e para te filloj me interpretimin e pershpejtimit te " Atomic clock " dhe ne fund te shkruaj " epilogun tim te preferuar" .." And the end of te world as I know "!!!