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The next prime minister will have to negotiate with US President Donald Trump as he threatens additional tariffs on Canada and could soon face the opposition Conservatives in a general election.
Canada's Liberal Party will today announce Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's successor as party leader and the country's head of government amid a trade war with the United States that could cripple the Canadian economy.
The next prime minister will have to negotiate with US President Donald Trump as he threatens additional tariffs on Canada and could soon face the opposition Conservatives in a general election.
Trudeau announced in January that he would step down after more than nine years in power as his approval rating plummeted, forcing the ruling Liberal Party to hold a quick race to replace him.
" Is it ideal in a bilateral crisis situation for us? I think not. But on the other hand, the process is playing out domestically as it should," said Drew Fagan, a professor at the Munk School of Global Affairs and Public Policy.
Former central banker Mark Carney is the leading candidate, with the most support from party members and the most money raised among the four Liberal candidates.
About two-thirds of Trudeau's cabinet publicly supports Carney, and a Mainstreet poll in late February showed Carney had 43% support among Liberals compared to 31% for his main rival, former finance minister Chrystia Freeland.
Freeland has touted her experience negotiating with Trump during his first term, but has struggled to distinguish herself from Trudeau after being one of his most loyal supporters for years.
She left his government in December after Trudeau tried to replace her and she criticized his government's spending policies. A victory for Carney, 59, would be the first time a foreigner with no real political background has become Canadian prime minister.
Carney has said that his experience as the first person to serve as governor of two central banks - Canada and England - meant he was the best candidate to deal with Trump.
About 400,000 Liberal members were eligible to vote for the party leader. The party will announce the first round of results at around 6:30 p.m. local time.
During the campaign, Carney said he supported dollar-for-dollar retaliatory tariffs against the United States and a coordinated strategy to boost investment. He has repeatedly complained that Canada's growth under Trudeau was not good enough.
The prospect of a new beginning for the Liberal Party under Carney, combined with Trump's tariffs and his repeated taunts to annex Canada as the 51st U.S. state, led to a remarkable resurgence in Liberal fortunes.
At the beginning of 2025 the party was down by 20 or more points, but is now statistically equal to the official opposition Conservatives in some polls.
" There's a rally around the flag moment that we would never have predicted a year ago. I think it's probably true as we speak that the Liberals have been rescued from oblivion," said University of British Columbia politics professor Richard Johnston.
Regardless of who wins, the next prime minister has important decisions to make immediately. The Liberal minority government could face a confidence vote when Parliament reconvenes at the end of March, potentially triggering an election.
Therefore, he or she may decide to call snap elections, avoiding the hassle of forming a cabinet. The elections must be announced no later than October 20.
However, polls show that neither the Liberals nor the Conservatives will be able to form a majority government.
Carney can legally serve as prime minister without a seat in the House of Commons, but tradition dictates that he should seek to win one as soon as possible.
In 1984, John Turner was not a legislator when he became prime minister after winning a Liberal leadership contest. / Adapted from “Pamphlet” by “ Reuters ”
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