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Shkruar nga PamfletiBudapest, the battle that could bring down Orban and shake up the entire Balkans...
From Vance to Merz, from Magyar to Rama: the great political game that begins in Hungary could produce strong waves in Albania as well...
A major political game is taking place on Sunday, involving not only the country holding the elections, Hungary, but also all of Europe, and even beyond.
It is no coincidence that just 24 hours ago, US Vice President JD Vance arrived urgently in Budapest, thus demonstrating the importance of this battle.
The White House's number two raised his finger forcefully against Europe, but the "moon" that JD Vance's finger was pointing at was none other than German Chancellor Friedrich Merz.
He is the man who has placed the big bet and the main investment in Sunday's elections, where for the first time in 16 years, Budapest's strongman, Viktor Orban, enters as an underdog.
Europe, more precisely Germany and France, have supported the opposition candidate, namely the TISZA party, Peter Magyar.
Orban's former ally, who has been waging an anti-corruption and anti-autocracy battle against his former boss, Magyar, since 2020, was quickly accepted into the European People's Party and strongly supported by Chancellor Merz's Christian Democrats.
The latter are expending all their political energy to bring change to Hungary, an objective that is strategic for Berlin.
This is because they seek to remove from the scene a close and important ally of Vladimir Putin within the EU, in order to settle scores with his colleague in Slovakia, Robert Fico, as well as with the Czech Prime Minister, Andrej Babiš.
These three names are today among those most accused of corruption by public opinion in their countries, but also by European opinion.
The Battle of Budapest is considered the most important, also because of the great power and weight that the iron man of Budapest has in the politics of his country, but also in Eastern Europe and the Balkans.
The economic and financial network connected to him owns a large piece of the Balkan market, turning Orban into one of the most powerful people on the continent.
If you add to this the close relationship with Putin and the close alliance with Donald Trump, the picture becomes even more complicated.
The latest polls by the most prominent European companies place Orban over 8 points behind the main opposition party, while all anti-Orban political forces could control two-thirds of the country's parliament. This would ensure a radical dismantling of the system that the Budapest strongman has built.
Meanwhile, it seems that the anti-Orban model is not only concentrated in Hungary, but also in other countries where the Hungarian autocrat's political partners lead.
Albania is among them, whether because of Orban's closeness to Edi Rama, whether because of the suspicious penetration of capital close to the Fidesz leader, or even because of suspicions about Russian-Chinese infiltration, which have their main base in Europe in Budapest.
So what could be the counterpart of the Hungarian model in Albania?
There are two ways to do this, as Germany has long been studying the terrain in detail and communicating with numerous actors and factors.
According to these readings, it has been concluded that Edi Rama's Socialists are at a quota of less than 38% of electoral support. This means that there is every possibility that, through elections, the current majority will be removed.
This can be achieved in two ways: either with the model being followed in Hungary, i.e. by splitting off part of the SP to create an anti-Rama political factor to split the majority, or by supporting the creation of a new anti-establishment force.
But, as it seems likely, a combination of these two factors is being aimed at. Specifically, the emergence of actors critical of Edi Rama within the SP is being encouraged, while the over 35% support that exists for a new political force has almost made the launch of a sensational figure possible.
This is a character from the new justice system, quite popular, who can lead a new opposition force and ensure the unification of all factors against Edi Rama in a common list.
It is not surprising at all that the game will start in the summer of this year, when a new wave of anti-corruption against the majority is expected to further damage its reputation.
Alarmed, Edi Rama declared at yesterday's parliamentary group meeting that there are attempts to surround the majority, including from those he ironically called "saboteurs".
Informed in detail, Rama has prepared his response scenarios, including Sali Berisha, who is currently playing with two goals.
A pact between Berisha and the new factors, winking at the Germans, has been built at a distance, but he does not have full confidence in this formula. That is why he is continuing to flirt with Rama on electoral reform, territorial reform, and especially on amending the Constitution.
It seems that this could be the point that will bring about a strong movement, the announcement of a new force, and the emergence of a new leader.
But there is little time until then.
Because everything depends on the outcome of Sunday in Budapest and on the news of the now global war taking place in the Persian Gulf./ Pamphlet
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