FLASH
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The latest forecasts from the UK Met Office show that 2026 is set to be among the four hottest years on record, with a global average temperature of 1.46°C above pre-industrial levels. The predicted range is from 1.34°C to 1.58°C, very close to the critical limit of the Paris Agreement, which aims to limit warming to below 1.5°C.
This is the fourth year in a row that the global temperature has exceeded 1.4°C. According to experts from the Met Office, this indicates a dangerous acceleration of climate change. Meteorologist Nick Dunstone warns that: “2024 saw the first temporary breach of 1.5°C, and if 2026 repeats it, the risk of extreme events and irreversible damage will increase significantly.”
United Nations scientists attribute the rise in temperatures to human activities, mainly the burning of fossil fuels and the use of coal. Carbon dioxide and methane, they say, are the main gases responsible for the warming.
This trend calls into question countries’ commitments to the Paris Agreement, which calls for limiting temperature increases to well below 2°C, with efforts to keep them below 1.5°C. The agreement has been signed by 194 countries and requires periodic reviews of policies to reduce emissions. But according to the 2023 “global inventory,” progress is slow and not in line with the targets.
The Meteorological Office and the World Meteorological Organization warn that crossing the 1.5°C threshold, even temporarily, worsens the opportunity for adaptation and increases the risks of extreme droughts, floods, ice melt and food crises.
In this context, 2026 could become a critical point, not only for the climate, but also for international political accountability. Without coordinated and immediate action, climate targets risk remaining only on paper.
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