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80 percent of weapons seized in Mexico come from the United States, according to Mexican authorities. How does cross-border trafficking work, and what have the two countries done to stop it?
After Mexican security forces killed Nemesio Oseguera Cervantes, known as "El Mencho", Mexico's Defense Minister, Ricardo Trevilla Trejo, stated that 80 percent of the weapons seized from the cartels were smuggled from the United States, Al Jazeera writes.
According to authorities, the operation was carried out with the support of US intelligence in Tapalpa, in west-central Mexico. Oseguera led the Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG), known for its use of military-style weapons and rapid expansion of influence in recent decades.
The main cartels and their weaponry
Several major criminal organizations operate in Mexico, including the Gulf Cartel, the Sinaloa Cartel, and the CJNG. According to authorities, these groups possess military-grade rifles, high-capacity magazines, and, in some cases, explosives.
The CJNG has demonstrated advanced combat capabilities; in 2015, its members shot down a Mexican military helicopter.
The Mexican and US governments have announced bounties for several cartel leaders, including figures from the Sinaloa Cartel and the Gulf Cartel, accused of drug trafficking and serious crimes.
Following the operation against "El Mencho" on February 22, armed members of the cartel launched coordinated attacks on highways, police stations, and rival groups in several states, causing casualties and disruption of public activity.
Gun laws in Mexico
Mexico's Federal Law on Firearms and Explosives allows limited civilian purchases of weapons only through two stores run by the military. Buyers must undergo extensive background checks and official approvals. Military-grade weapons are reserved for the armed forces.
According to Benjamin Smith, professor of Latin American history at Warwick University, cartels circumvent this system through the illegal market, mainly by sourcing weapons from the US, where some categories of weapons are more readily available.
Authorities estimate that between 200,000 and 500,000 firearms are trafficked from the United States to Mexico each year. U.S. federal law prohibits the export of weapons without authorization, while Mexican law prohibits their import without government approval. Trafficking violates both legal frameworks.
How are weapons secured?
According to Annette Idler, associate professor of global security at the University of Oxford, the cartels use straw buyers, unlicensed resellers, theft and specialized networks to obtain weapons and ammunition from the US market.
Proxy buying occurs when a person with legal authority purchases a gun on behalf of someone who does not have such authority. US law clearly prohibits this practice.
The weapons are usually transported by land, often disassembled to avoid detection. In February, Mexico's Defense Ministry announced that it had seized 137,000 .50-caliber cartridges since 2012. According to authorities, nearly half of them were traced to the Lake City Army Ammunition Factory in Missouri.
Mexican law
In 2021, Mexico sued several major U.S. arms manufacturers in a federal court in Massachusetts, seeking $10 billion in damages. The government argued that their practices facilitate the illegal trafficking of weapons to cartels.
On June 5, the US Supreme Court ruled unanimously that the Lawful Arms Trade Protection Act (2005) protects manufacturers from liability, as Mexico did not prove that they had “aided and encouraged” illegal sales.
In a separate case, Mexico has sued five gun stores in Arizona, alleging they facilitated illegal purchases for criminal organizations. The lawsuit is ongoing.
US measures
US authorities have launched counter-trafficking operations. Project Thor (2018–2021), run by the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives (ATF), targeted networks supplying the cartels. The program was terminated in 2022 without a detailed public explanation.
Earlier, Operation Fast and Furious (2009–2011) allowed the purchase and transfer of more than 2,000 weapons to Mexico with the aim of identifying top cartel leaders. Many of the weapons were lost and used in crimes, including the murder of a US agent in 2010. The operation drew criticism in the US and Mexico.
Is the US deliberately arming cartels?
According to Professor Smith, there is no evidence that the US is deliberately arming cartels like the CJNG. He points out that previous cases show unintended consequences of law enforcement strategies, not direct arms supply policies.
Smith adds that the US could more easily restrict traffic with stricter rules, but that depends on political decision-making and domestic priorities.
Idler also believes that cartels' access to military-grade ammunition is explained more by regulatory loopholes and market distortion than by deliberate state support.
What is required to stop traffic?
According to Idler, Washington should treat southward arms trafficking with the same priority as northward drug trafficking and migration. She proposes strengthening oversight, investing in tracking and investigations, and coordinated cooperation with Mexico.
Analysts agree that reducing the flow of arms requires sustained commitment from both governments and more effective law enforcement on both sides of the border.
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