FLASH
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A day after US President Donald Trump announced a two-week ceasefire between the US and Iran, Israel launched its deadliest attack against Lebanon, killing hundreds of people and testing the fragile ceasefire to its limits.
The attacks highlighted a key, and potentially decisive, difference between the two sides’ understanding of the ceasefire: While Iran says Lebanon constitutes an “indivisible part” of the agreement, Israel and the US insist that is not the case. So where does this leave the ceasefire and US demands that Iran reopen the critical Strait of Hormuz?
Lebanon : Several new attacks hit Lebanon this morning, one of which killed more than 10 people, including women and children, the country’s National News Agency reported. The IDF also issued an evacuation order for large parts of Beirut’s southern suburbs today, another indication that its operations remain deadly. This came after at least 182 people were killed yesterday in Israeli strikes that drew international condemnation, especially after Pakistan, which has been acting as a mediator, initially stated that Lebanon was part of the deal. US Vice President JD Vance claimed there had been a “legitimate misunderstanding” about Lebanon’s inclusion in the ceasefire. However, Iran blocked oil tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz in response to the attacks, the semi-official Fars news agency reported yesterday. Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf doubled down on this stance today, saying that "ceasefire violations carry clear costs and strong responses."
Strait of Hormuz : Fewer ships have passed through the Strait of Hormuz since the ceasefire began, according to ship-tracking data, despite Trump's initial insistence that the ceasefire was contingent on the "full, immediate and safe opening" of the key chokepoint. Yesterday, Vance reiterated that if Iran does not reopen the waterway, the ceasefire will end.
Gulf States and Iran : Meanwhile, a ceasefire appears to have taken effect in the Gulf region and Iran. For the first time since the start of this war, no Gulf state has reported any strikes at night, except Bahrain, which said it had intercepted seven drones in the past 24 hours, not necessarily at night. The United Arab Emirates even said explicitly that they had not been targeted at night.
Talks : However, preparations are underway for talks in Islamabad this weekend. Vance, Trump's son-in-law Jared Kushner, and special envoy Steve Witkoff are expected to attend.
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