FLASH
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PSG, Bayern Munich, Arsenal and Atletico Madrid have all qualified for the Champions League semi-finals after a season full of intense matches and surprise results. With the decisive stage now underway, attention has shifted to the contenders for the trophy and the probabilities offered by statistical analysis.
Bayern Munich and PSG have shown consistent form throughout the tournament. The German team eliminated Atalanta in the round of 16 and then Real Madrid in the quarterfinals, in a tough encounter. Meanwhile, PSG relatively easily overcame the two English teams, Chelsea and Liverpool, confirming the continuity of last season's results.
In the other semi-final pair, Atletico Madrid face Arsenal. Although traditionally considered the more pragmatic team, statistics show a high offensive efficiency for Atletico, who have scored 34 goals this season, 4 less than Bayern and PSG (38 each).
Arsenal and Atletico Madrid hold a special record: they are the two teams with the most matches in the history of the Champions League without winning the trophy. Arsenal counts 223 matches, while Atletico 190. The qualification of one of them to the final guarantees the possibility of ending this long wait.
Opta Predictions
According to Opta supercomputer simulations, Bayern Munich are considered the favourites to win the trophy, with a 36.6% probability. Arsenal are very close behind with a 35.7% chance, making the race wide open.
Arsenal have the highest odds of reaching the final (71.7%), partly due to facing Atletico, who are the least favored team of the four finalists according to Opta.
Bayern, on the other hand, face a tougher challenge against defending champions PSG. However, the Germans have a 61.7% chance of reaching the final. PSG have only a 19% chance of defending their title according to these simulations.
Atletico Madrid results with the lowest probability of winning the trophy, only 8.8%, although their performance in the previous stages leaves room for surprises.
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