
Football often produces unexpected stories. A team can start the competition as last in the predictions and end up at the top or vice versa. For Real Madrid, the second scenario seems to be changing, as the Madrid team is moving from a difficult situation to the role of a contender in the Champions League.
Los Blancos are transforming a situation that seemed almost lost into a real race for the continental trophy. When it comes to Real Madrid, many analysts emphasize that anything is possible, even when the probabilities seem minimal. The Opta supercomputer, for example, gave the Madrid team only about a 1% chance of reaching the semi-finals, let alone going all the way to Budapest and winning its 16th Champions League trophy.
However, the situation has changed significantly after the victory over Manchester City at the Santiago Bernabéu Stadium. At the beginning of last week, statistical predictions placed Alvaro Arbeloa's team with almost zero chances of lifting the trophy. Now, according to updated data, Real Madrid are once again considered among the contenders.
Currently, while the return match at the Etihad Stadium has not yet taken place, Madrid have an 8.34% chance of winning the 2025-2026 Champions League, with the final scheduled for the Puskas Arena.
Favorites according to predictions
According to Opta's statistical model, several teams are ranked ahead of Real Madrid in the race for the trophy. Bayern Munich leads the list with a 26.34% chance, followed by Arsenal with 22.07%, Barcelona with 12.10% and PSG with 10.17%.
If Real Madrid manage to eliminate Manchester City in the round of 16, the road to the final is expected to be difficult. The Madrid team could face Bayern Munich in the quarter-finals - the team that is considered the main favorite to win the trophy this season according to "Opta".
In the semi-final stage, potential opponents for Real Madrid could be Liverpool, PSG, Chelsea or Galatasaray in a journey that still remains open and unpredictable.
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