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Shkruar nga Pamfleti
What is expected to happen in Venezuela after today's shocking developments remains extremely unclear. The country's constitution provides for a temporary transfer of power to Nicolás Maduro's vice president, Delcy Rodríguez.
Rodríguez has stated that the government has no knowledge of the whereabouts of the president or the first lady, Cilia Flores, and has demanded evidence to prove that they are alive.
However, the future of the regime has been officially put in question, while the opposition, both at home and in exile, is likely to see this moment as a crucial opportunity for change.
The Venezuelan opposition, led by recent Nobel Peace Prize laureate Maria Corina Machado, defends the position that the legitimate president is the exiled politician Edmundo González.
In this climate of uncertainty, several possible scenarios for the country's political future are being considered.
The first scenario is the constitutional one, provided for by article 233 of the Constitution: in the event of the “absolute absence” of the president, the executive vice president – Delcy Rodríguez – temporarily takes over the leadership of the state and must call new presidential elections within 30 days. The president who emerges from these elections receives the full six-year mandate.
Another scenario is that of the regime’s collapse: key leaders resign or flee the country. In this case, the most likely opposition candidate is Edmundo González Urrutia, a former diplomat and experienced academic who currently lives in exile in Spain. González has received strong support from Maria Corina Machado, who in her speech in Oslo last month after receiving the Nobel Peace Prize, declared that her movement was preparing for a “smooth and peaceful transition” once Maduro leaves power. In December, Machado said that González had proposed that she take the post of vice president and that the “vast majority” of the police and armed forces would obey the orders of the new government once the transition of power began.
The third, most dangerous scenario is a military takeover. The current Defense Minister, Vladimir Padrino López, spoke after the US airstrikes in the early hours of Saturday, declaring that Venezuela would resist the presence of foreign troops on its territory. He added that “this act of invasion constitutes the gravest insult the country has ever suffered.”
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