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The United States has launched a naval blockade of Iran, aiming to increase economic pressure on Tehran after the failure of recent peace talks in Pakistan. According to CNN, the measure took effect at 10:00 a.m. Eastern Time.
Former US President What comes after Trump's blockade? supports the idea that economic pressure can achieve what weeks of airstrikes failed to achieve: forcing Iran to change course. However, experts warn that this approach may overestimate the impact of sanctions on Iranian decision-making.
The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has said it will respond to the blockade, while Iranian officials have warned of consequences for the global economy, including rising costs for American consumers.
Hasan Alhasan, a senior fellow at the International Institute for Strategic Studies in Bahrain, told CNN that Iran has several options to mitigate the effects of the blockade, but their effectiveness remains uncertain. According to him, Tehran could try to increase energy exports through routes that avoid the Strait of Hormuz.
These options include using pipelines to Iraq, Turkey, and Armenia to export gas, as well as exploiting the Neka oil terminal on the Caspian Sea. Iran could also increase fuel smuggling across the land border with Pakistan or use mixed export methods, masking the origin of the oil.
On the military front, Alhasan points out that Iran could target American ships or incite its allies, such as the Houthis in Yemen, to intervene in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, another strategic point for global trade.
According to CNN, the blockade of Iranian ports represents a new phase of escalation, where the US is testing Iran's ability to withstand pressure on several fronts simultaneously.
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