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As thousands of additional American troops arrive in the Persian Gulf, President Trump is considering two extremely risky operations that could escalate the conflict or lead to a global economic recession.
The arrival of thousands of new American troops in the Persian Gulf region is being accompanied by preparations for possible ground intervention scenarios inside Iranian territory. According to a report by the American magazine The Atlantic, US military leaders are analyzing two main operational options.
Sources familiar with the plans say the first scenario would involve seizing Kharg Island, a key hub for Iran's energy exports. The second scenario would aim to seize enriched uranium, with the aim of curbing Tehran's nuclear program. If these operations receive political approval, they would constitute high-risk interventions with no guarantee of ending the conflict or bringing about regime change.
On the ground, about 3,500 US Marines arrived over the weekend, with a similar number expected to deploy in the coming weeks. These forces are expected to support existing special operations units, made up of hundreds of troops trained for complex missions.
Control of Kharg Island is seen by Washington as a means of economic pressure, as it handles about 90% of Iran's oil exports. However, such an operation presents significant military challenges, including navigating mined waters and facing drone and missile attacks. Even if successful, holding the island would require a prolonged military presence.
The economic consequences are considered immediate in global markets. The price of Brent oil could increase significantly, from 100 to 150 dollars per barrel, with a direct impact on the world economy. At the same time, the effects on the Iranian economy would take more time to reflect.
The alternative scenario, which involves intervening to seize enriched uranium inside Iranian territory, carries high operational risks. Such a mission would require air strikes, direct confrontation with Iranian forces, and the involvement of specialized units for managing radioactive materials.
Meanwhile, political pressure within the US is growing. Polls show that a significant portion of public opinion calls for a quick end to the conflict. The rise in fuel prices, which have exceeded $4 per gallon for the first time since 2022, is adding to concerns ahead of the election.
There is a division in positions within the US administration. Some political figures and international allies support a tougher approach towards Iran, while other voices warn of the political and strategic costs of a new conflict in the Middle East.
Developments indicate a complex situation, where military options are associated with high risks and far-reaching consequences at the regional and global levels.
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