FLASH
Shkruar nga Pamfleti
The initial objective is to neutralize air defenses; the focus is on ballistic missiles, drones, underground structures, and the dilemma of political influence in Tehran.
US President Donald Trump believes that the threat of military pressure could force Iran to change its stance in nuclear negotiations. If that effort fails, operational plans for a large-scale strike are likely already in place.
This is reported by the Israeli media Ynet , according to which Trump understands that overthrowing the Iranian government system through air strikes alone is not a realistic goal. However, a significant weakening of the regime could provoke domestic protests. A military strike would not necessarily bring Tehran back to the negotiating table on more favorable terms, but this remains one of Washington's goals.
Close coordination between the US and Israel
With the possibility of an attack considered real, attention is focused on potential targets. According to Ynet, American and Israeli officials are in close coordination. Drawing lessons from the 12-day direct confrontation between Israel and Iran last June, senior officers from both countries have spent weeks analyzing maps, aerial photographs and intelligence assessments.
Israeli media outlets point out that public leaks suggesting disagreements between Washington and Tel Aviv, including claims that the US opposed a strike, were partly intended to create confusion in Tehran and serve as an element of strategic disinformation. If this coordination is functional, then both sides have shared responsibilities for the targets each will strike.
First objective: neutralizing air defenses
According to Ynet's analysis, the first and most urgent objective will be to neutralize Iranian air defense systems, with the aim of ensuring air superiority for American and Israeli aircraft.
Iran has been trying to rebuild its air defense capabilities after significant damage was sustained by Israeli strikes last year, which created a safer corridor for the Israeli Air Force over Iranian territory. To bolster its defenses, Tehran would need advanced Russian S-400 systems. However, according to estimates cited by Israeli media, Moscow is unlikely to have supplied them, given its involvement in the war in Ukraine. There are also reports of Chinese assistance, but the extent of its assistance remains unclear.
Ballistic missiles and drones in focus
Another key target is Iran's ballistic missile arsenal.
For Israel, the priority is long-range missiles that can directly strike its territory. For the United States, the focus will be on medium- and short-range missiles, capable of hitting American forces deployed in the Persian Gulf and regional allies.
According to the scenario described, the US would also aim to dismantle Iran's fleet of unmanned aerial vehicles. In such an operation, any vehicle that can take off would be considered a target. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) navy would also be targeted, with the aim of preventing a possible attempt to block the Strait of Hormuz, a key point for global energy transport.
The dilemma of regime change
Dr. Raz Zimmt, director of the Iran Program at the Institute for National Security Studies in Tel Aviv, is skeptical about the goal of regime change. Speaking to Ynet, he emphasizes that regime change is an overly optimistic goal.
According to him, the US may aim to destabilize the regime, but achieving this goal would be difficult without directly striking the supreme leadership, including Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Even if the headquarters of the Revolutionary Guard and the Basij militia, which suppresses domestic protests, are hit, success will depend on the reaction of the population. Zimmt estimates that many Iranians, affected by the developments of recent weeks, may not risk their lives again in the absence of clear signs that the regime is actually weakening.
Nuclear facilities and "missile cities"
A key question remains whether Iran's nuclear facilities will be hit. According to Zimmt, the main uranium enrichment plants at Natanz and Fordow are currently not operational, while Iran has beefed up their defenses.
He also mentions a new underground structure south of Natanz, built deeper than the Fordow facility, for which it remains unclear whether sufficient capabilities exist to strike it effectively.
However, the United States has the means to inflict deep damage on so-called "missile cities," underground complexes and tunnel networks where ballistic missiles are stored and launched, Israeli media reports. /Adapted from Pamphlet /
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