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Shkruar nga Frank Hofmann
"The king is naked", - this is what the majority of international analysts and connoisseurs of the situation in Russia think.
But it is difficult to accurately assess the consequences of the mutiny of Yevgeny Prigozhin's private army. The fact is, according to analysts, that Putin's power has weakened after this revolt.
"The most important thing that can be determined is that Putin has clearly lost his authority," German Russia expert Fabian Burkhard told DW. However, who won in the Russian power structure will be determined later. "Many actors in Russia were surprised by this situation," recalls Burkhard, who usually conducts research at the Leibniz Institute for East and Southeast European Studies in Regensburg.
The beginning of Putin's end?
"For me, this is the beginning of the collapse of the Putin system," says Irina Sherbakova, co-founder of the human rights organization Memorial, which is now banned in Russia, in an interview with Deutschlandfunk radio.
Timothy Snyder, an American historian and professor from the American University at Yale (Yale), says in the first analysis: "There was no one in any Russian city who spontaneously expressed personal support for Putin or even personally threatened his regime."
Prigozhin's march on Moscow showed the people of Russia and the world "that a small group of soldiers" could reach Moscow relatively easily, Snyder describes Putin's loss of control. "This was not the case before the deployment of Russian armed forces in Ukraine."
Putin lacks troops in the country
By this logic, with his illegal aggression in Ukraine, Putin removed unlimited power in Russia because his military power base disappeared. But are the recent events in Russia really a political "tipping point" for Putin, i.e. the beginning of the end of his rule?
At least that's what Sherbakova, who lives in exile in Berlin, believes. But even she does not know "how long it will last".
For Timothy Snyder, what he sees as "apathy" in Russia "suggests that most Russians now just assume they're ruled by the gangster with the most guns. They're going about their daily lives—whoever that gangster is." ." However, the Yale historian is convinced: "Even if he is backed into a corner, Putin will save himself."
"Wars end with internal pressure on the attacker"
This draws attention to the fighting in Ukraine and raises the question: Could Putin escalate the war there again to consolidate his power base in the Kremlin? Or will Wagner's rebellion be the beginning of the end of the war?
Wars generally end "when pressure is felt within the political system," Snyder says. When it is known that more than 50 countries led by the USA support Ukraine, then: "Those who want this war to end should help the Ukrainians to put this pressure," he thinks.
At the moment, it is unclear whether the Ukrainian army at the front can take advantage of the events in Russia. First of all, did these events really weaken the combat effectiveness of the Russian forces?
German security expert Niko Lange told DW that it is difficult to assess what Russian soldiers in Ukraine heard about the uprising. "They have had their mobile phones taken away and are very disconnected from reality," says the expert on Ukraine and Russia, who also works for the Security Conference in Munich.
After Prigoshin's rebellion, Russian commanders have increased insecurity Photo: Concord Press Office/ITAR-TASS/IMAGO
Concerns of Russian commanders in Ukraine
Lange estimates that uncertainty has increased among Russian commanders. Moreover, Prigozhin's troops will be absent from the front. Currently, it is not clear what will happen to Wagner's 25,000 soldiers.
Wagner's units have captured the southern command of the Russian army in Rostov. This metropolis is one of the most important supply points for the Russian armed forces in the so-called land corridor between Russia and Crimea, which was previously occupied by Putin's army. Another important point is the Crimean Bridge.
Cutting off these two supply routes is one of the military objectives of the Ukrainian army in the counterattack that has begun. Because, without supplies of ammunition and fuel, the Russian troops will fail.
Disputes between Prigozhin and Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu have been going on for months. Wagner's boss has repeatedly accused the Russian army of not providing enough equipment and ammunition to his men even during the battle for the city of Bahmut. While the occupation of the Russian southern command in Rostov, helped Prigozhin to reach the best possible deal with the Kremlin for himself./ dw
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